NL West
Filliam: As a Dodgers fan I would be remiss if I didn't pick the boys in blue to return to the top of the division. I like their lineup top to bottom, and a healthy Schmidt would give them a very solid 1-5 to go with a solid bullpen.
Carl: Shockingly enough, I like the Padres. I see a team that had a very good season last year (89 wins) and did enough in the offseason to maintain that level of performance. Much as it pains to admit me, the Dodgers do look very good, especially now that it looks like they're going to pick Ethier to start in left over Pierre.
Filliam: For the same reason my esteemed colleague Carl likes the Padres to win the division, I like the D-backs to finish in second. They won 90 games last year, and while they were outscored, I believe their hitters will progress enough and the rotation will benefit from the addition of Dan Haren. The Padres as I've said previously, are too reliant on one-year players, injury risks, and are starting Scott Hairston and Jody Gerut in the outfield to open the year. But, the rotation should be good, the bullpen always is, which is why I still think they'll finish over .500.
Carl: Ah, see people rag on the Padres for starting Hairston in center and McAnulty/Gerut in left, but the Dodgers are throwing out Blake DeWitt at third. I think people are overestimating how much Arizona's young players are going to improve. A modest improvement for a lot of those guys still makes their lineup below average. And their bullpen pitched way, way over its head last year, both in terms of season versus career performance and relative to their peripherals. For some reason, the Rockies just don't do it for me, probably because it's hard for me to get a handle on the magnitude of their park effects. They have 5 really good hitters in their lineup and three really bad ones, and their lineup isn't as great as it's cracked up to be. Last year, it was a little above average, slightly better than the Padres'. As a side note, the Dodgers, D-backs, and Giants all had really terrible hitting teams last year. Getting back to this year, the Giants' lineup is going to be horrific. They had a 89 OPS+ last year and subtracted the 170 OPS+ from left. Brian Bocock, who put up a .656 OPS in A-ball last year, starts the year at short for them.
Filliam: The Rockies to me were good, but fluky last year, and I think they'll be closer to 80 wins than 90. The Giants have promising young pitching but disastrously awful hitting and are clearly the bottom feeder in the division.
Filliam's Prediction:
Carl: Shockingly enough, I like the Padres. I see a team that had a very good season last year (89 wins) and did enough in the offseason to maintain that level of performance. Much as it pains to admit me, the Dodgers do look very good, especially now that it looks like they're going to pick Ethier to start in left over Pierre.
Filliam: For the same reason my esteemed colleague Carl likes the Padres to win the division, I like the D-backs to finish in second. They won 90 games last year, and while they were outscored, I believe their hitters will progress enough and the rotation will benefit from the addition of Dan Haren. The Padres as I've said previously, are too reliant on one-year players, injury risks, and are starting Scott Hairston and Jody Gerut in the outfield to open the year. But, the rotation should be good, the bullpen always is, which is why I still think they'll finish over .500.
Carl: Ah, see people rag on the Padres for starting Hairston in center and McAnulty/Gerut in left, but the Dodgers are throwing out Blake DeWitt at third. I think people are overestimating how much Arizona's young players are going to improve. A modest improvement for a lot of those guys still makes their lineup below average. And their bullpen pitched way, way over its head last year, both in terms of season versus career performance and relative to their peripherals. For some reason, the Rockies just don't do it for me, probably because it's hard for me to get a handle on the magnitude of their park effects. They have 5 really good hitters in their lineup and three really bad ones, and their lineup isn't as great as it's cracked up to be. Last year, it was a little above average, slightly better than the Padres'. As a side note, the Dodgers, D-backs, and Giants all had really terrible hitting teams last year. Getting back to this year, the Giants' lineup is going to be horrific. They had a 89 OPS+ last year and subtracted the 170 OPS+ from left. Brian Bocock, who put up a .656 OPS in A-ball last year, starts the year at short for them.
Filliam: The Rockies to me were good, but fluky last year, and I think they'll be closer to 80 wins than 90. The Giants have promising young pitching but disastrously awful hitting and are clearly the bottom feeder in the division.
Filliam's Prediction:
- Los Angeles Dodgers 88-74
- Arizona Diamondbacks 86-76
- San Diego Padres 83-79
- Colorado Rockies 82-80
- San Francisco Giants 67-95
Carl's Prediction:
1. San Diego Padres 91-71
2. Los Angeles Dodgers 89-73 *wild card
3. Arizona Diamondbacks 84-78
4. Colorado Rockies 83-81
5. San Fransisco Giants 65-97
NL Central
Carl: Looks like a two team race between the Cubs and Brewers. The Brewers hugely improved their defense by signing Cameron, moving Hall to third, and moving Braun to left. That change alone could give them 3 wins over last year. The Cubs look like a very solid team top to bottom, and I think they'll edge out the Brewers at the end of the season.
Filliam: I had the Cubs winning the division before I remembered Lou Pinella is their manager. He's terrible. If Gallardo and Sheets return healthy the Brewers will definitely challenge for the division. The Reds have some exciting young players, but in general the rest of the division is pretty weak and unexciting.
Carl: Agree with you there. If everything breaks the Reds way, they could contend, but they're probably too focused more on the future to take some risks trying to win now. Man how the Astros and the Cardinals have fallen. As for the Pirates, well, at least they probably won't use their top draft pick on a reliever this year.
Filliam's Prediction:
Carl: Agree with you there. If everything breaks the Reds way, they could contend, but they're probably too focused more on the future to take some risks trying to win now. Man how the Astros and the Cardinals have fallen. As for the Pirates, well, at least they probably won't use their top draft pick on a reliever this year.
Filliam's Prediction:
- Milwaukee Brewers 86-76
- Chicago Cubs 85-77
- Cincinnati Reds 80-82
- Houston Astros 76-86
- St. Louis Cardinals 74-88
- Pittsburgh Pirates 71-91
Carl's Prediction:
1. Cubs
2. Brewers
------.500----
3. Reds
4. Cardinals
5. Astros
6. Pirates
(Note: I'm not predicting records anymore because that's a ridiculous implication of precision that I don't want to make. Ok, no, mainly I just don't want to tally up all the wins and losses to make sure the league as a whole isn't winning more games than it's losing. I'll draw in a .500 line in the standings; that's about as precise as I can predict.)
NL East
Filliam: The Mets are the best team in the National League this year, mainly due to Johan Santana. The Mets have always had pitching problems, and although Santana won't completely solve all of their issues, he'll certainly help. The Braves should have a great offense, and Hudson, Smoltz, and Glavine in the rotation, which will be enough to compete. The Phillies have pitching issues, the Nats have well, issues, and the Marlins are rebuilding.
Carl: Yes, the Mets are good. Very shallow, but good. I think they'll avoid enough injuries to be the best team in the NL. I agree with your other assessments, and would like to throw in a compliment of Jim Bowden, who has made some solid high upside acquisitions in his quest to rebuild the Nationals.
Filliam's Predictions:
Carl: Yes, the Mets are good. Very shallow, but good. I think they'll avoid enough injuries to be the best team in the NL. I agree with your other assessments, and would like to throw in a compliment of Jim Bowden, who has made some solid high upside acquisitions in his quest to rebuild the Nationals.
Filliam's Predictions:
- New York Mets 91-71
- Atlanta Braves 87-75
- Philadelphia Phillies 84-78
- Washington Nationals 75-87
- Florida Marlins 68-94
Carl's Predictions:
1. Mets
2. Braves
3. Phillies
------.500-------
4. Nats
5. Marlins
AL West
Carl: I'm really down on this division in general now that Escobar is out for the year and Lackey is missing a month. The Angels should still have enough to win the division, but they're not a particularly strong team anymore.
Carl: I'm really down on this division in general now that Escobar is out for the year and Lackey is missing a month. The Angels should still have enough to win the division, but they're not a particularly strong team anymore.
Filliam: I liked the Angels to win more games until the severity of Kelvim Escobar's injury was revealed, and before John Lackey got hurt. The Mariners will challenge them with Bedard and King Felix, but the Angels offense should be enough to get them through.
Carl: I'm not very impressed with the Mariners, who outperformed their runs scored/runs allowed last year, but they could have enough to push the weakened Angels. I was surprised to see they had a 104 OPS+ last year, so they found some offense from somewhere. Oakland could regret punting on this year if Rich Harden and Bobby Crosby somehow avoid injury. Ok, so that's not going to happen. Oh well. Good job by Beane acknowledging the improbability of everyone in the division suffering massive injuries while Harden and Crosby avoid them.
Filliam: Yeah, the Rangers and A's have a lot of prospects but neither should be contenders this year.
Filliam's Predictions:
Carl: I'm not very impressed with the Mariners, who outperformed their runs scored/runs allowed last year, but they could have enough to push the weakened Angels. I was surprised to see they had a 104 OPS+ last year, so they found some offense from somewhere. Oakland could regret punting on this year if Rich Harden and Bobby Crosby somehow avoid injury. Ok, so that's not going to happen. Oh well. Good job by Beane acknowledging the improbability of everyone in the division suffering massive injuries while Harden and Crosby avoid them.
Filliam: Yeah, the Rangers and A's have a lot of prospects but neither should be contenders this year.
Filliam's Predictions:
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of Los Angeles no wait, Orange County 89-73
- Seattle Mariners 86-76
- Texas Rangers 75-87
- Oakland A's 71-91
Carl's Predictions:
1. The Angels Angels of Anaheim
2. Mariners
------.500--------
3. A's
4. Rangers
AL Central
Filliam: The Tigers made one of the biggest acquisitions of the offseason by getting Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Add those two to an already very good team, and you have a great team. The Indians too have a playoff caliber team, and a return to form by Cliff Lee would go a long way in helping them return. If the Tigers get Joel Zumaya and Francisco Rodney back healthy they should have a good enough bullpen to get by the Indians.
Carl: My bold prediction for this year: the Tigers are not going to score 1000 runs. Cabrera and Renteria are great upgrades, but the Tigers are going to see a lot of regression from Polanco, Granderson, and Ordonez. I like the Indians to sneak by the Tigers mainly due to better pitching and pitching depth. As for the rest of the division, got anything relevant or interesting to say about them, because I certainly don't.
Filliam: The Royals are up and coming, the White Sox are, uh, a baseball team, and the Twins are rebuilding.
Carl: Nicely done.
Filliam's Predictions:
Carl: My bold prediction for this year: the Tigers are not going to score 1000 runs. Cabrera and Renteria are great upgrades, but the Tigers are going to see a lot of regression from Polanco, Granderson, and Ordonez. I like the Indians to sneak by the Tigers mainly due to better pitching and pitching depth. As for the rest of the division, got anything relevant or interesting to say about them, because I certainly don't.
Filliam: The Royals are up and coming, the White Sox are, uh, a baseball team, and the Twins are rebuilding.
Carl: Nicely done.
Filliam's Predictions:
- Detroit Tigers 96-66
- Cleveland Indians 92-70
- Kansas City Royals 77-85
- Chicago White Sox 74-88
- Minnesota Twins 68-94
Carl's Predictions:
1. Indians
2. Tigers
-------.500------
3. White Sox
4. Royals
5. Twins
AL East
Carl: Ooh, finally time for the only division that matters. That's right, it's the home of the storied Jays-Rays rambunctious rhyming rivalry. The Rays have taken it on the chin from their northern rivals, but they've done an excellent job building up their team from within. Picking first every year certainly helps with that. I don't think this is the year they pass the Jays though. My favorite part about the Blue Jays is their awesome, awesome defense. Until they cut Reed Johnson, they had a legitimate gold glove caliber defender at every position except catcher. It looks like the Rays actually adopted some of the Jays' defensive emphasis this year, adding Bartlett at short and keeping Upton in center for good. That, the addition of Matt Garza, and the continued development of their top minor league arms should greatly decrease their RA this year. I think both teams will be right around .500, with the Blue Jays a couple games up on their Floridian nemesis. Can you think of any other interesting teams that call this division home? I guess we could theoretically talk about the two best teams in baseball.
Filliam: The Red Sox have some interesting questions right now, namely can Jon Lester become a top flight starter, is Josh Beckett healthy, and can Clay Buchholz and/or Bartolo Colon be good enough to get them the division? That's more questions than you'd like from a defending world champion, but if they get satisfactory answers they will probably win the division. The Yankees are for the first time that I can remember, relying on young players on the starting staff, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy will all be a major part of the team. While this is a good thing for the future, I'm not entirely sure how their rotation will look this year. Mike Mussina was awful last year, Pettitte was good last year, but has injury issues, and has steroids drama to deal with now. So again, questions for a contending team.
Carl: I actually think the Yankees will take the division and the Red Sox the wildcard. Better offense, just enough pitching. Thoughts on the rest of the division?
Filliam: The Blue Jays have some good young players, and continue to get better, but I don't think they have enough to get over the hump. If they bring up Adam Lind and he fulfills his considerable potential, they'll have a good offense to go along with what appears to be a good rotation. The Devil...err, Rays have a ton of young talent, a ton of prospects, some more ready to contribute than others, and with some luck, will be contenders within a few years. But losing Rocco Baldelli hurts, and Scott Kazmir needs to get healthy as well. The Orioles are a solid 5 years away from being a decent team.
Carl: Oh yes, the Orioles, now more than ever complete afterthoughts. At least they're going in the right direction in rebuilding now, though.
Filliam's Predictions:
Carl: I actually think the Yankees will take the division and the Red Sox the wildcard. Better offense, just enough pitching. Thoughts on the rest of the division?
Filliam: The Blue Jays have some good young players, and continue to get better, but I don't think they have enough to get over the hump. If they bring up Adam Lind and he fulfills his considerable potential, they'll have a good offense to go along with what appears to be a good rotation. The Devil...err, Rays have a ton of young talent, a ton of prospects, some more ready to contribute than others, and with some luck, will be contenders within a few years. But losing Rocco Baldelli hurts, and Scott Kazmir needs to get healthy as well. The Orioles are a solid 5 years away from being a decent team.
Carl: Oh yes, the Orioles, now more than ever complete afterthoughts. At least they're going in the right direction in rebuilding now, though.
Filliam's Predictions:
- Boston Red Sox 95-67
- New York Yankees 91-71
- Toronto Blue Jays 86-76
- Tampa Bay Rays 82-80
- Baltimore Orioles 65-97
Carl's Predictions:
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox *wild card
3. Blue Jays
4. Rays
----.500-----
5. Orioles
Postseason
Filliam's Predictions:
AL-Detroit over Anaheim, Boston over Cleveland; Detroit over Boston
NL-New York over Milwaukee, Los Angeles over Atlanta; Los Angeles over New York
World Series-Detroit over Los Angeles
Carl's Predictions:
NL - Dodgers over Mets, Padres over Cubs, Padres over Dodgers
AL - Indians over Red Sox, Yankees over Angels, Indians over Yankees
World Series - Padres over Indians
(I'm being a homer in picking the Padres to win their division, I'm not going to just stop there and pick someone else to win the World Series.)
Awards
AL Cy Young: Erik Bedard, Seattle Mariners
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana, New York Mets
AL MVP: Grady Sizemore, CF, Cleveland Indians
NL MVP: David Wright, 3B, New York Mets
AL ROY: Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
NL ROY: Kosuke Fukodome, CF, Chicago Cubs
Random other predictions:
Random other predictions:
Carl: Randy Wolf has a huge year for the Padres. Brad Penny has a terrible year for the Dodgers. Matt Kemp takes a step back, Andruw Jones has a very good bounceback year. Pedro Martinez throws 50 innings this year and signs with the Padres next offseason. C.C. Sabathia signs an extension with Cleveland in the middle of the season. Justin Verlander disappoints. Jose Guillen disappoints, Zach Greinke has a huge year. Cole Hamels throws a no-hitter, the Mariners and A's get into a brawl, and Shane Victorino hits for the cycle.
1 comment:
However close we are to the real thing at the end of the year, we sure as heck put out one awesome post.
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