An Analysis of the Padres' Current Situation

It's the end of the first week in May, and as a fan I am ready to concede the season. I'll still watch every game I can and root for them, and I still think this is a team as talented as the Dodgers and D-Backs. Unfortunately, the reality of the situation is that the Padres are 10 games back of the D-Backs and 6.5 games back of the Dodgers. That is a ton of ground to make up, even if the Padres are actually a better team.

I wouldn't advocate blowing up the team yet, as miracles do happen in sports, and players are probably not going to lose significant trade value. Holding onto tradeable assets like Brian Giles, Randy Wolf, or Tadahito Iguchi until June still would allow them to be moved before the trading deadline for a decent return. The focus should gradually start shifting from winning this year to evaluating the team for next year. They are set at catcher, first, probably second, short, third, and probably left for next year. They desperately need a solution at center field; to that end they should probably give Scott Hairston the majority of the playing time in center from here on out to see if he can handle it defensively and if he can hit at all. My personal preferred solution is to shift Matt Antonelli to center and sign Mark Ellis as a free agent next year, but it looks like the ship has sailed on moving Antonelli. Venable is another internal candidate, but he'd have to destroy AAA this year to merit consideration as a starting option. Headley looks like the left fielder next year, but McAnulty should be given most of the playing time this year to either establish some trade value, establish himself as a viable starting option, or establish that he'll never be more than a fourth outfielder. Pitching-wise, it makes sense to try out Ledezma on the off chance he can harness his stuff enough to be a back end starter. LeBlanc should be ready for next season, and maybe Inman or Carrillo will be as well. Maybe LeBlanc will get a look in September, but those guys don't really factor into plans for this year.

As for what to do with guys with possible value to a contender: for Wolf and Iguchi, you would need to get something of actual value back, because these guys will likely qualify as type B free agents and can be offered arbitration to get draft picks. I'd guess Brian Giles will likely qualify as a B free agent too, but he'd probably accept arbitration since he'd make a lot more than that way than in free agency. Many teams could use a starter like Randy Wolf, particularly if he can mostly maintain his hot start for another month. The Braves come to mind as a team with a desperate need, and Brent Lillibridge could be an interesting return for him. Lillibridge could be a long term replacement for Khalil Greene at shortstop, or he could shift to center and be the answer there. Or he could suck and be the answer nowhere. Giles seems like a fit with the Indians, who could use some more offense from their corner outfielders. I don't really know who they could ask for in return, but that's ok, I also don't know if he has a no trade clause, if the Padres are interested in exercising his option for next year, and any other possibly right field external right field candidates that could be better than him. So this is all wild speculation. I'm not sure who would have a need for Iguchi. Him starting to hit better might help create a better market for his services, but teams aren't so wild about giving up lots for a second baseman.

When a team gets into a position like the Padres are, in last place despite expectations of contention, fans like to criticize someone, usually the front office. Sometimes it's not errors by the front office. Sometimes it's just randomness. Last year Mark Kotsay had a 57 OPS+. The two years before that he was at 88 and 97. He's never been as good as Edmonds at any point in his career. Yet here he is putting up a 122 OPS+ this year in the early going. Maybe the Braves scouts are better than the Padres' scouts; that's quite possible in the overall scheme of things - they did a ridiculous amount of winning over the past decade and a half. Maybe in this case the Braves got lucky and the Padres did not. The Padres nearly won the division last year with basically the same team as the one this year. Mike Cameron and Milton Bradley have proven to be key losses, but Wolf has been a key gain, and Iguchi should have been an improvement at second. This could have been a division winning team this year, and the difference between leading the division and owning a 12-21 record is not Aaron Rowand in center instead of Jim Edmonds. It's not Kyle Lohse or Hiroki Kuroda in the fifth spot instead of Justin Germano. The slow start this year has been caused by the breakdown of almost every player on the roster, including most of those players that were instrumental in winning the division last year. For that reason, there is basically nothing the front office could have done to stop this from happening. Sometimes you just get unlucky.

The Padres' Bullpen

Last night against the Giants the Padres' bullpen again allowed the opposition to score the winning runs. Ok, so that was after holding them scoreless for the previous four innings, so last night's game is probably the wrong one to use to demonstrate the pen's struggles. Still, the Padre relievers as a group have the second worst ERA in baseball this season. What does this tell us about the Padres' pen and their prospects for the rest of the season? Should they be seeking reinforcements, and should we be re-evaluating the team's true strengths?

In a word, no. In three words, small sample size. In many more words that reiterate those four words, the combined twenty innings the relievers have thrown adds almost no information for us about their individual abilities. Cla Meredith is still a great groundball pitcher with excellent control who dominates righties. Joe Thatcher is still a groundballing sidearmer better against lefties but who can get righties out. Heath Bell is still overall awesome. Trevor Hoffman still has a great changeup and the same stuff he's used to get by with a sub 3 ERA for six years in a row. Enrique Gonzalez, Glendon Rusch, and Wil Ledezma probably aren't going to be very good, but Kevin Cameron and Carlos "Che" Guevara both look solid and available to be called up/activated from the DL.

More on Trevor Hoffman: according to Gameday, Hoffman's velocity is right where it was last year, his changeup still looks as nasty as ever, and he's used his slider effectively at times (he struck out Matt Kemp on three straight sliders). He had a terrible outing against Houston where he struggled with his control, but still almost escaped without allowing a run. Against the Dodgers, he gave up one run on a walk and a single. It's been four innings, two of them excellent. He's given up one extra base hit, so it's not like every ball put in play has been a rocket. It is extremely premature to conclude he's done.

Ouch

While perusing Oliver Perez's PECOTA card at Baseball Prospectus, I found this comment on him from the 2003 annual:

"I had seen notes that showed Perez’s fastball at 90 mph, but it sure looked better than that to me. He supports it with a tremendous changeup and tight curveball, giving him three quality pitches to work with. Perez is mature beyond his years in terms of working hitters with speed changes; somewhere, his changeup against Reggie Sanders just hit the glove. San Diego might be the only club with better and younger front-line starting pitching than Oakland. These guys are that good."

Ouch. At least Peavy's good...

Some of these young arms that were better and younger than Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, Aaron Harang, and Rich Harden:

Jake Peavy - Hey, a success. Let's just stop here.
Oliver Perez
Brian Lawrence
Dennis Tankersley
Adam Eaton
Mark Phillips
Ben Howard
Eric Cyr
Mike Bynum

Glance at this article and think about what might have been.

So what does this tell us? Never count your minor league pitching prospects until they are hatched as fully formed big league starters. Actually, if you think about this list, Peavy is one of the best pitchers in baseball, Perez was traded for a great player (coming of a 177 OPS+ year), and Eaton was used to acquire Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez. I guess that's about as good as you can hope for when dealing with minor league arms and potential. I think I would have preferred a rotation of Hudson, Zito, Mulder, Harden, Harang in their primes, though.

Padres Opening Day Roster Analysis

The Padres came into spring training with a number of questions to resolve about the roster. The left field starter and fifth rotation member were TBD, three of the five bench spots were up in the air, and the last three bullpen slots remained unclaimed. With five days to the opener, these questions have been answered and the Opening Day roster seems to be set, barring further injury or a change of heart. Here's a look through how those questions were answered and if they came up with the correct answer, in my (obviously infallible) opinion.

Disclaimer: I was really cheesed off when the Padres released Russell Branyan, so I tend to overreact to small roster moves that make no sense to my way of thinking about the team. Most of the bench and back of the bullpen spots are all about small sample size theater, so the true impact of the back of the roster construction is very small. We're not choosing between Juan Pierre and Matt Kemp for 700 PA here. Still, in the NL West, every game counts.

5th Starter's Spot: Justin Germano has been declared the victor in this battle after everything worked out in the Padres' interests nicely in spring training. Germano had a very good camp; the second best option, Glendon Rusch, had a very good camp and is ready to help if Germano falters or Wolf is injured; the inexplicable front runner entering camp, Shawn Estes, who is an inferior pitcher to Germano and Rusch, had a terrible camp and will start with Portland to work on stuff. Germano is the fifth starter until/unless Prior returns. Rusch can step in if Germano falters or Wolf goes down and hopefully not embarrass himself (PECOTA has him at an above replacement level 4.95 ERA, and presumably he could be better if he's healthier, which the Padres seem to think he is). Ideally LeBlanc will be ready to help in the second half if anyone goes down beyond that; he held his own in major league camp this spring.

Left Field Starter: Deciding to delay Headley's service clock to control him for another year and the injury to Edmonds left Gerut and McAnulty the left fielders by default. The addition of Huber should create a passable left field platoon. I'm not particularly excited about any of these guys, but maybe one of them will catch fire and keep Headley down for a while. When Edmonds comes back, Hairston moves back to left and probably platoons with the hotter of Gerut or McAnulty.

Bullpen spots: Hoffman, Bell, Thatcher, and Meredith were guaranteed spots. Hampson and Guevara (who I really like and hope is on the team when he's healthy) start the year on the DL, and Ledezma, Rusch, and Gonzalez get the last three spots. Rusch is the necessary long man, but I don't get the inclusion of Ledezma and Gonzalez. Ledezma has good stuff but needs to refine his control. He had a superficially good spring ERA-wise, but in 13 IP he's had 8 BBs and 6 K's. Gonzalez also has a mediocre track record and wasn't impressive this spring. Oh well. Neither of them is going to pitch in many high leverage situations, and if they aren't very good they'll get booted in favor of Cameron, Hampson, and Guevara quickly enough.

Bench Spots: I think the club did an solid job picking their bench players. Crabbe is the obligatory light hitting fast scrappy guy, who will mainly be used as a middle infielder and center fielder. Clark and Gerut provide good lefty bats off the bench, and the trade for Huber fills the need for a righty pinch hitter. Barrett is the backup catcher, and with a 12 man pitching staff that's all you get on the bench. It looks like they picked the best hitters that have the necessary versatility.

In summary, a solid job filling out the team. I think when Headley gets called back up he'll be mostly the starter in left, with Hairston spelling Giles and Edmonds regularly. I'd also expect Hampson, Guevara, and Cameron to cycle into the back three spots in the bullpen as Ledezma and Gonzalez struggle or other guys get hurt.

The best news of all about the roster this year: Geoff Blum is not the first right handed pinch hitter off of the bench.

My First Baseball Game

Inspired by a somewhat recent post at the great Padres blog Ducksnorts, I'd like to write about the first baseball game I remember attending. I remember it mainly because I remember Tony Gwynn nearing 2,000 hits for his career, and there was an outside chance he'd reach that milestone at the game I was at. He needed four to make it. The game was August 6, 1993, and I was five years old. A doubleheader was scheduled, but it was unlikely we'd be able to stay for both games, so we wanted a vintage Gwynn, 4-4 performance in the early game so we could witness history.

Baseball-Reference's box score tells me the game started at 5:06 PM. That seems to match my memory of an evening-ish start; it certainly wasn't a day-night doubleheader. The first game ran a little over three hours, meaning the night game wasn't starting until almost 9. Almost 9 was a little late-ish for 5 year old Ben (er, carl), so the first game of the double-header was all he would see.

My main memories of the game are only of a lot of cheering. I can recall some sense of the Padres' best pitcher throwing for them that night. That was the case, as Andy Benes toed the rubber for the Friars that night. For a long time I would have guessed that Andy Ashby was the starter, so some part of the starting pitcher's identity (namely, his first name) stayed with me. Benes posted a 109 ERA+ in 230 IP that year, good numbers undoubtedly, yet probably not up to the ace level hoped for when the Padres took him with the first overall pick of the 1988 draft.

I think I can remember Tony Gwynn having a good game. The box score certainly confirms this: he was 3-3 on the day with two intentional walks, leaving him one shy of his historic hit at the end of the first game. In the bottom of the first he singled home the first run of the game. Baseball-reference's description of the play has it as a line drive single to short left-center field. It came on the second pitch of the at bat; it was probably one of Gwynn's masterpieces, taking an unhittable pitch on the outside corner and flicking it the other way. He singled again in the third, this time on a line drive to right. He worked the pitcher for five pitches, before getting a good pitch and turning on it to smack it to right (or so I imagine from the box score description). His hit helped fuel a 3 run outburst, putting the Padres up 4-0. He came up again in the fourth with runners on second and third, but the Rockies made the wise decision to intentionally walk him, possibly denying me the opportunity to witness his 2,000 hit later in the game. In the sixth he singled again, knocking the second pitch up middle on the ground. This put runners on first and second with no outs, yet the Padres failed to capitalize, ending the inning up 4-1.

In the top of the seventh, Benes ran into some trouble, giving up a leadoff homer, loading the bases, and giving up one run while recording only one out. In from the bullpen trotted a young, unproven reliever with two career saves to his name, unaccompanied by any peeling bells. Yes, Trevor Hoffman would look to preserve the narrow 4-3 lead in the seventh inning. He struck out his first batter faced, presumably relying upon his fastball in the 90s, his change-up undeveloped until the next year. He induced a groundout from the next batter to end the threat and maintain the lead, and Hoffman was well on the way to the first of 522 saves as a Padre.

The bottom of the seventh brought Gwynn to the plate at 1,999 hits. I can vaguely remember the cheering for Gwynn as he approached the plate for this at bat, followed quickly by disappointment as Gwynn accepted another intentional free pass. If only Don Baylor, the Rockies' manager at the time, has opted to pitch to Tony. If only the previous batter hadn't bunted into a double play, turning runners on first and second into a single runner at second with two outs. If he had just popped out, maybe I could have seen the milestone hit. But it was not to be. Hoffman notched his first save by retiring the Rockies in the 8th and 9th, the lone blemish against him a two out single. The Padres went down 1-2-3 in the bottom of the 8th, and Tony would have to wait for later that night to reach his milestone.

In the later game, Gwynn went hitless in his first three plate appearances before singling through the middle in the sixth. It was his mom's 58th birthday, and it was exactly six years before his 3,000 hit in Olympic Stadium in Montreal.

So that's what happened in the first trip to the ballpark I made that I can remember. With such an auspicious beginning, how could I possibly resist becoming a huge baseball fan?

If I Had A Nickle For Every Blown Call

Weathers has made some valid points regarding the poor officiating in the Chargers playoff games. Blown calls, no calls, phantom calls were rampant. Here is the problem, this type of horrible officiating has gone on since the dawn of sports. The Chargers played a valiant game. Injuries and poor coaching had as much, or more to do with the loss then myopic officiating. If one wishes to view a case study of bad calls look at the, REFEREE FIXED, Suns VS San Antonio playoff series. What a joke! Major sports are truly on the edge of ruin. Steroids, overpaid mediocre players, cheating officials, ridiculous seat prices, and a general mentality of "WE ARE ABOVE THE LAW" spell big trouble. Add the stock market, with more blood then Johnny Depp spills in Sweeney Todd, and you have big, negative, economic potential for sports. I love Baseball, enjoy Football and tolerate Basketball and I for one am very worried about the future of "the game".

Back to San Diego and lighter notes. Watch as spring training unfolds. I predict The Padres will sign a partial, or full retread to fill a gaping hole on the team. Said retread will do a yeoman's job of leading the "Pads" in OBP, when a lefty is pitching, after the 6th inning, in weather of less then 69 degrees, on the road, east of the Mississippi. Another meaningless stat brought to you by your San Diego Padres.

Enough for now, I do not want to tax your gray matter so early in the day.

Today's Vocabulary word is: Vulcanization.

Now you Star Trek fans relax I am not disparaging Spock.

__________has revolutionized Hockey.

Still basking in the glow - and basking in the glow of all the previous failures

It's far too early to look ahead to the upcoming steamrolling the Chargers are going to receive from the Patriots. Wednesday through Saturday will bring plenty of time for that. For now, I'd like to continue to bask in the glow of the Chargers victory over the Colts yesterday. I still cannot believe they pulled it out. San Diego sports teams have a glorious history of choking in the clutch, of getting screwed by the officials and lady luck but failing to rise above those challenges and persevere to victory. Ok, maybe they don't have a particularly glorious history of that, but the last few years have been pretty brutal in those regards. To recap:

A (recent) history of violent failure
In 1998, the Padres reached the World Series. In Game 1, they reached the bottom of the seventh in Yankee Stadium with a 5-2 lead. A Knoblauch homer tied the game, and with two outs and the bases loaded in the 5-5 game, Tino Martinez stepped to the plate against Mark Langston. They reached a 2-2 count, and Langston threw a fastball over the outside corner. It was clearly a strike. Langston knew it was a strike. The NY Times describes the Yankees bench as having gone quiet because they knew it was a strike. And yet somehow, it was a ball to Rich Garcia. Martinez homered on the next pitch, and the World Series was over for the Padres.

Time elapsed, and the Padres and Chargers mainly sucked too much to choke in key situations. Finally, in 2004 the Chargers returned to the playoffs. Drew Brees led a great fourth quarter comeback that ended in a touchdown to tie the game. It was aided by a roughing the quarterback call on the Jets on a fourth down failure that would have ended the game, but that was pretty clearly the correct call. The defender had driven his arm into Brees' helmet; you're not allowed to do that. In overtime, the Chargers got the ball and drove down the field for what should have been a routine field goal. Nate Kaeding pushed his 40 yard attempt wide right, and the Jets responded to their second chance by driving down the field to make their own game winning field goal.

The Padres made the playoffs in 2005 and 2006, yet did nothing either time. At least they finally managed to win a game in 2006 against a bad Cardinals team that they should have easily taken the series against. Instead, they lost in four games. The Chargers also made the playoffs in 2006 after a dominating season in which they finished 14-2. In one of history's all time epic choke jobs, they lost to a clearly inferior Patriots team 24-21 after: five fumbles in the game, all recovered by the Patriots; one solid drive by the Patriots all game, occurring right before half time when Wade Phillips made the incredible decision to play a prevent defense with plenty of time left on the clock; an interception of Brady late in the fourth quarter with an 8 point lead; a subsequent fumble back to the Patriots on the return of that interception; numerous dropped passes throughout; going for it on fourth and 11 instead of kicking a long but very makeable field goal; a stupid personal foul penalty committed by Drayton Florence, giving the Patriots an easy field goal when a sack had pushed them back out of range; a 54 yard field goal attempted with 8 seconds left (plenty of time left to run a play to gain 5 more yards to make the field goal much easier). Yes, that was a bad game.

In 2007, the Padres put together a good season and were a win or a Rockies loss away from clinching a playoff spot with two games to go. They were one strike away from beating the Brewers, but Tony Gwynn, Jr. tripled off of a Trevor Hoffman changeup and the Brewers ultimately won the game. They defeated the Padres the next day, and the D-Backs rolled over and gave their final two games to the Rockies, leading to a one game playoff in Colorado for the wild card. The Padres and Rockies played the best baseball game I've seen, a back and forth battle that lasted 13 innings. Special commendation should be given to Heath Bell, who pitched a season high 2 2/3 innings with 5 k's and no hits allowed. He entered with runners on first and second and one out in the seventh innning and struck out Ryan Spilborghs and Yorvit Torrealba to end the threat. In the 13th, Scott Hairston struck a two run homer, scoring Brian Giles (who had worked a walk), and the Padres looked headed to the playoffs yet again. They just needed three outs from the second greatest closer of all time. Yeah, those outs never came, though. Well, one of them did. A second one should have. But instead, the umpire ruled Holliday safe, despite him never touching home plate, and instead of a tie game with two outs and a runner of first, the game was over and the Rockies had won. So yeah, that was kind of a tough loss to take.

The Chargers game Sunday seemed to be imitating the Padres game against the Rockies. San Diego's best player (Peavy, Tomlinson) had a so-so game and was out of it at about the halfway mark. Their most important player down the stretch (Bradley, Rivers) was hurt for the most important part of the season (the last week of it for Bradley, the fourth quarter for Rivers). A huge call went against them (the play at the plate for the Padres, the interception return for a touchdown called back on a phantom hold for the Chargers). The backup to the most important player (Hairston, Rivers) accounted for the go-ahead scores (Hairston's homer, Volek's qb sneak). I was fully expecting David Binn (the longest tenured Charger) to snap the ball over Mike Scifres' head on the Chargers' last punt of the game, mirroring how Hoffman (the longest tenured Padre) had blown the Rockies game. Instead, Binn was clutch, delivering a beautiful snap, allowing Scifres to get off a booming kick, and sprinting down the field to make the tackle on the returner.

So somehow the Chargers held on and won, defying 10 years of San Diego postseason tradition. And it was glorious. If only previous San Diego athletes had been more like David Binn.

Disclaimer: I'm not really as bitter about these moments as I appear, except perhaps at Rich Garcia. I also don't believe in clutch as an ability - studies have shown that in baseball performing better in the clutch is a very small and unimportant skill. The best clutch players are the best players in every other situation.

Baseball!!!!1!one!

It would be highly presumptuous of me to think anyone would actually wade through the War and Peace-esque (in length only, of course) post I just submitted, so I'm going to contribute something readable. Plus I'm really bored on a Friday night because somebody doesn't want to go see There Will Be Blood. So: 5 things that will happen in baseball this year, a rebuttal.

1. Juan Pierre will contribute 700 glorious plate appearances to the Los Angeles Dodgers while playing a wonderfully decent left field. He'll make an out in 476 of them. Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier will start the season platooning in right field, until they get off to a slow start in their first two games. They're given to the Marlins, along with $8 million; in return the Dodgers get Luis Gonzalez back.

2. For the fourth straight year, the Padres and their penny pinchin' ways will finish ahead of the Dodgers, fueled by a healthy Randy Wolf (cut loose from the Dodgers last year) and Mark Prior. Kevin Kouzmanoff will continue to prove anyone who judged the trade a win for the Indians last year in May (cough, Emerson, cough) completely wrong by hitting .300 with 25 homers. Something good will finally happen in the postseason for San Diego fans for the first time since Sterling Hitchcock roamed the Qualcomm Stadium mound.

3. Sorry, Cubs, next year became this year 11 days ago. Except that the Cubs are actually the best team in a terrible NL Central, so they'll reach October with a 1 in 8 chance at making their fans 1000 times more annoying.

4. The Boston Yankees and New York Red Sox (or is it the other way around, I don't really know anymore because they're basically the same team - oh snap!) will both miss the playoffs as Toronto will rally by them on the backs of an incredible pitching staff. In all seriousness, look at the Jays staff, it's really, really good. The Rays claim the wildcard when their Wade Davis and Jake McGee and David Price and Evan Longoria and Desmond Jennings (ok, he's too much of a stretch even if he is a great prospect) and Jeff Niemann are all ready much sooner than expected. A 6 year Tampa Bay dynasty is begun. Even in defeat, Buchholz wins 18 games with a 3.2 ERA, proving that yes, he is way better than Matt Garza (who is mostly just average, in contrast to all the other great young Tampa pitchers), and yes, Buchholz, Chris Young (the short one), and Yunel Escobar is a better package than Tulowitzki, Kemp, and Garza.

5. Barry Bonds signs with the Oakland A's to "mentor" their young players. Carlos Gonzalez suddenly develops 60 homer power, Brett Anderson breaks Mike Piazza's bat tossing him BP, then picks it up and throws it at him, and Eric Chavez actually stays healthy for the entire year.

Looks like it's going to be an exciting year in baseball.