Today's opportunity to mount the soapbox

This article is yet another great example of why the unearned/earned run distinction is ridiculous.

An Analysis of the Padres' Current Situation

It's the end of the first week in May, and as a fan I am ready to concede the season. I'll still watch every game I can and root for them, and I still think this is a team as talented as the Dodgers and D-Backs. Unfortunately, the reality of the situation is that the Padres are 10 games back of the D-Backs and 6.5 games back of the Dodgers. That is a ton of ground to make up, even if the Padres are actually a better team.

I wouldn't advocate blowing up the team yet, as miracles do happen in sports, and players are probably not going to lose significant trade value. Holding onto tradeable assets like Brian Giles, Randy Wolf, or Tadahito Iguchi until June still would allow them to be moved before the trading deadline for a decent return. The focus should gradually start shifting from winning this year to evaluating the team for next year. They are set at catcher, first, probably second, short, third, and probably left for next year. They desperately need a solution at center field; to that end they should probably give Scott Hairston the majority of the playing time in center from here on out to see if he can handle it defensively and if he can hit at all. My personal preferred solution is to shift Matt Antonelli to center and sign Mark Ellis as a free agent next year, but it looks like the ship has sailed on moving Antonelli. Venable is another internal candidate, but he'd have to destroy AAA this year to merit consideration as a starting option. Headley looks like the left fielder next year, but McAnulty should be given most of the playing time this year to either establish some trade value, establish himself as a viable starting option, or establish that he'll never be more than a fourth outfielder. Pitching-wise, it makes sense to try out Ledezma on the off chance he can harness his stuff enough to be a back end starter. LeBlanc should be ready for next season, and maybe Inman or Carrillo will be as well. Maybe LeBlanc will get a look in September, but those guys don't really factor into plans for this year.

As for what to do with guys with possible value to a contender: for Wolf and Iguchi, you would need to get something of actual value back, because these guys will likely qualify as type B free agents and can be offered arbitration to get draft picks. I'd guess Brian Giles will likely qualify as a B free agent too, but he'd probably accept arbitration since he'd make a lot more than that way than in free agency. Many teams could use a starter like Randy Wolf, particularly if he can mostly maintain his hot start for another month. The Braves come to mind as a team with a desperate need, and Brent Lillibridge could be an interesting return for him. Lillibridge could be a long term replacement for Khalil Greene at shortstop, or he could shift to center and be the answer there. Or he could suck and be the answer nowhere. Giles seems like a fit with the Indians, who could use some more offense from their corner outfielders. I don't really know who they could ask for in return, but that's ok, I also don't know if he has a no trade clause, if the Padres are interested in exercising his option for next year, and any other possibly right field external right field candidates that could be better than him. So this is all wild speculation. I'm not sure who would have a need for Iguchi. Him starting to hit better might help create a better market for his services, but teams aren't so wild about giving up lots for a second baseman.

When a team gets into a position like the Padres are, in last place despite expectations of contention, fans like to criticize someone, usually the front office. Sometimes it's not errors by the front office. Sometimes it's just randomness. Last year Mark Kotsay had a 57 OPS+. The two years before that he was at 88 and 97. He's never been as good as Edmonds at any point in his career. Yet here he is putting up a 122 OPS+ this year in the early going. Maybe the Braves scouts are better than the Padres' scouts; that's quite possible in the overall scheme of things - they did a ridiculous amount of winning over the past decade and a half. Maybe in this case the Braves got lucky and the Padres did not. The Padres nearly won the division last year with basically the same team as the one this year. Mike Cameron and Milton Bradley have proven to be key losses, but Wolf has been a key gain, and Iguchi should have been an improvement at second. This could have been a division winning team this year, and the difference between leading the division and owning a 12-21 record is not Aaron Rowand in center instead of Jim Edmonds. It's not Kyle Lohse or Hiroki Kuroda in the fifth spot instead of Justin Germano. The slow start this year has been caused by the breakdown of almost every player on the roster, including most of those players that were instrumental in winning the division last year. For that reason, there is basically nothing the front office could have done to stop this from happening. Sometimes you just get unlucky.

Fun Factoid of the Day

The third place team in the NL West is farther behind the Diamondbacks than any other last place team is behind it's respective division leader. The NL West also has baseball's best record, the Diamondbacks, and it's worst, the Padres (a mere half game behind the Rockies, baseball's second worst record). Way to represent, NL West. 

Fun Factoid of the Day

Last year on the first of May Mike Cameron was hitting .192/.267/.240 in 116 PA, with 29 K's. From May 1 to the end of the season, Cameron hit .253/.341/.473 (with half his games at Petco). Sometimes good players have slow starts. Sometimes people on the wrong side of 30 have bad starts and bounce back. Sometimes, they don't bounce back.

Fun Factoid of the Day

From 1994 to 1995, Greg Maddux made 53 starts and threw 411 2/3 innings (7.77 IP/start). During this time period, he had a 1.60 ERA (265 ERA+), a 0.854 WHIP, and a 35-8 record.

Power Rankings - Week 4

Annnd we're back for Week 4 of the power rankings. The MLB season has settled down somewhat, Chase Utley on pace for 73 HR's and 154 RBI's aside, and we're starting to get a small feel for how things might be progressing for the rest of the first half. So without any further ado, here's Week 4 of the Major League Baseball Power Rankings. 

1. Arizona Diamondbacks: The D-backs are off to an MLB best 15-6 start, and if the hitters continue to perform this well, they might stick around at the top. 

2. Chicago Cubs: The Cubs have just kept on winning, also starting 15-6, and winning nine of their last ten. 

3. Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox have won eight of their last ten, and seem to have realized Jacoby Ellsbury is a vastly superior player to Coco Crisp. 

4. Anaheim of Orange County Los Angeles Angels: The Halos are playing pretty good baseball of late, and Casey Kotchman, after having 11 HR's in 443 AB's has 6 HR's in 76 AB's this year. 

5. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brew Crew is looking pretty good so far, Eric Gagne has been pretty shaky so far, and Ben Sheets is already hurt. 

6. Florida Marlins: First place in the NL East is not the Mets, Phillies, or the Braves, it's the Florida Marlins. 

7. Oakland Athletics: They continue to surprise, and if Rich Harden comes back, they very well may compete. 

8. Baltimore Orioles: I'm putting them here based solely on the fact that they're still above .500 this late into the season. 

9. St. Louis Cardinals: The redbirds have been struggling a little bit, but they appear to not be as bad as I had expected. 

10. New York Yankees: Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy have been flat out terrible. Which bodes well for the Yankees if they can turn it around. 

11. New York Mets: The Mets have been playing somewhat better recently, but I continue to worry about their pitching. 

12. Chicago White Sox: Still in first place!

13. Philadelphia Phillies: Chase Utley is an absolute beast. 

14. Seattle Mariners: Felix Hernandez looks like he finally is starting to fulfill some of his vast potential. Because I said this, his next start will be 3 innings with 7 ER's. 

15. Tampa Bay Rays: Evan Longoria has made a very solid entry into the majors, another in the line of uber-prospects for the Rays. 

16. Houston Astros: The 'Stros have won four in a row, although with Miguel Tejada certain to need geritol or some other old age product, you wonder how long it can last. 

17. Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar has been excellent so far, as everyone who owned him in 20 team keeper leagues could have predicted. 

18. Minnesota Twins: Francisco Liriano's start hasn't been particularly encouraging, but it's early. 

19. Detroit Tigers: The offense is finally starting to come around...they're not going to be under .500 for much longer. 

20. Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays have lost seven of their last ten, but with good pitching, losing streaks don't stay around very long. 

21. Los Angeles Dodgers: They've shown flashes of brilliance along with long periods of stupidity, but Andruw Jones has looked terrible. 

22. Kansas City Royals: The Royals have cooled off considerably, but I still like the direction of the team. 

23. Pittsburgh Pirates: Hey, at least they've won two in a row. 

24. Cleveland Indians: They can't be in last forever, can they? 

25. Colorado Rockies: They've lost four in a row and are still tied for second. 

26. San Diego Padres: The Fathers are not playing particularly good baseball. Jake Peavy and Chris Young both pitched in what were eventually double digit games, not a good thing. 

27. Cincinnati Reds: Edison Volquez has been excellent so far. 

28. San Francisco Giants: I have a man crush on Tim Lincecum. 

29. Texas Rangers: Wow. 

30. Washington Nationals: They suck. 

Floundering Friars, Surging Snakes, and Down in the Dumps Dodgers

I'd like to write something analyzing the events of the first part of the season that's occurred. Unfortunately, for almost every potential topic, I come back to the same refrain: small sample size. Padre bullpen getting torched: small sample size. Padre offense not being worth a darn: small sample size. The Diamondbacks being awesome and firing on all cylinders: small sample size. Andruw Jones looks like the worst kid on a little league team with his flailing attempts at sliders: small sample size. The Dodgers in general can't really hit: small sample size. You get the picture.

Thus, my outlook on what has transpired to this point, specifically the D-Backs' dominating lead over the rest of the division, is significantly more optimistic than the average Padre, Rockie, or Dodgers' fan. Sure, the Diamondbacks are crushing the ball this year, but I still remember their terrible offense from last year, when they tied for the third worst team OPS+ in baseball with an 89.* ** So I remember that terrible offense from last year, and I realize they have almost the exact same players contributing this year, so I am optimistic the offense is in for some serious regression. Sure, young players, which they have a lot of, generally improve as they age, but they don't generally magically transform overnight from a .683 OPS to an .838 OPS like Stephen Drew is doing thus far this year.

* Trivia question: which three offenses last year were at or below the 89 OPS+ mark? Answer at the bottom of this post.
** Yes, I'm totally trying out the Pozterisk style of annotating my posts. Scroll down to the bottom of this post here to see this term used by its inventor. Also, just read all of Posnanski's blog because Joe Posnanski is the best sportswriter in the world today.


I also think the Diamondbacks' bullpen will struggle this year, given that their two most highly leveraged relievers have terrible peripherals (that would be Tony Pena and Brandon Lyon, and yes, those are terrible as in worse-than-Trevor-Hoffman bad peripherals).

Given this possibly optimistic view that the Snakes are in for a fall back to earth, and my general unwillingness to accept the Padres' and Dodgers' offensive struggles as anything more than a small sample size blip, it is no wonder I consider this division far from decided. That 6 game lead certainly helps the D-Backs, though. Last year's AL West race, generally considered a cakewalk for the Angels in the final month of the season after the M's collapsed, was decided by 6 games. 6 games is a large deficit to make up, and requires the Padres, Dodgers, or Rockies to significantly outplay the Snakes to overcome it. To sum up, I'm not worried about what this start says about the relevant talent levels of the Diamondbacks and the Padres, but I am worried about the practical result of it, which is a 5 game lead for Arizona.

Despite the small sample size, there are a couple of Padres I am very much worried about. Jim Edmonds and Scott Hairston have started very slowly, which just adds to the evidence existing before the season that the former is pretty much done and the latter just can't hit major league pitching. If these suspicions continue to be confirmed by their play, the Padres are without a viable centerfielder, which could be a problem. Maybe. Maybe Chris Young can just work on getting everything hit to either left or right field. Dodger fans, if I were a Dodger fan this means I would also be worried about Andruw Jones. I was expecting a bounceback close to pre-2007 form, but his performance to this point in the season suggests that last year was not a fluke, and this might be his true talent level now.

The main player I am concerned about based solely on his 2008 performance is Heath Bell. Yes, the Heath Bell with a 3.55 ERA, which was below 1 before today. Looking at the numbers, his strikeout rate has fallen apart, with 5 in 12 2/3 innings, and his groundball rate has collapsed from 59% to 36%. These are numbers from a very small sample size, but from observing him pitch it appears his stuff has slipped too. From fangraphs (scroll to the bottom of that link), his fastball velocity is down 3 mph from last year's, and he's throwing the fastball a lot more this year 80% this year versus 64% last year. These numbers aren't a reversion back to his old New York struggles; even while he was struggling there he was throwing hard, striking large bunches of guys out, and getting lots of ground balls, so this appears to be an entirely new development. I have no idea what the problem is, if there really is a problem; it could just be he needs a little time to find his command or get fully loosened up or whatever. I'm guessing the Padres know better than me what's going on here, so I hope they have a good solution in mind. Or maybe this is still a case of overreacting to a small sample size.

Trivia Answer: The Royals were the worst last year, with a team OPS+ of 85, thanks to one person on the team with over 100 PA compiling an OPS+ over 100 - Billy Butler, who eeked out a 105. The White Sox were the second worst despite a 150 from Jim Thome. And everyone's favorite horrific offensive team, the San Francisco Giants, tied with the Diamondbacks with an 89 OPS+.

College Sports

You know what separates collegiate sports from professional sports? Well besides the multi-million dollar contracts and endorsement deals...

It's recruiting. 

I played competitive baseball most of the time from ages 8-13, and then off and on from 13-16. However, since I didn't really take it seriously from 13-16, and consequently never played for a high school team, I missed out on any possibility of being recruited. Now granted, I had vague ideas of what the recruiting process was like, i.e., coach comes to player's house, tells him/her about the wonders of State University, makes promises that have about a 35% chance of being fulfilled, and then proceeds to send text messages and e-mails until the recruit commits. I thought I had a relatively good grip on how recruiting goes. 

Until tonight. 

I discovered tonight that recruiting goes above and beyond just coaches you barely know, making promises they can't keep, and generally falling all over themselves for you. Nay, recruiting involves family members making subtle, (and not so subtle) remarks and/or doing subtle, (and not so subtle) things to convince you to attend said school. For your consideration, I submit to you the case of one Ian Miller. He is a strapping young lad, roguishly handsome, disarmingly charming, and yes, he always smells good. This man, ladies and gentlemen, applied to two major universities in the Los Angeles area, the University of Southern California, and the University of California at Los Angeles. These schools are more commonly known as USC, and UCLA. Here's where we introduce our supporting character, and inevitably, our recruiter, a respected chief of family practice medicine at six Kaiser Permanente Hospitals in the Orange County and Los Angeles County region, a graduate of the University of California at San Diego medical school and most importantly, a Phi Beta Kappa graduate of UCLA. His name is John Karapetian, and he happens to be our hero's uncle. 

Now, lest ye be confused, this recruiting of our hero is not necessarily a bad, or even an unwelcome act, it is merely an interesting case study in the recruitment process. 

Example 1: Said Uncle takes recruitee (?) to a UCLA-Oregon football game at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena knowing full well that the history and tradition of the stadium and the massive UCLA crowds would instill in our hero a desire to take part in the majesty of UCLA athletics. On a scale of 1 to 10, this is a solid 9 in effectiveness.

Example 2: When discussing school possibilities for the fall, said Uncle does never acknowledge the presence of USC as a possible option, opting instead to recognize only UCLA when discussing acceptance, or rejection letter notifications. This rates a solid 5 on the scale, as it belittles the very existence of USC as a contender. 

Example 3: While the entire family is gathered together in front of a television, said Uncle, instead of allowing us to watch Sports Center, or something equally as neutral, puts on a DVD showcasing the UCLA Men's Basketball Dynasty during the John Wooden era. This hour long presentation showcases the University and the athletic program, and creates a feeling of nostalgia and pride in our potential recruitee. While not as emotionally investing as the Rose Bowl football game, the DVD still manages to echo our recruiter's message, that UCLA is clearly superior to any university that could possibly exist. Thus, it receives a 8 on our 1-10 scale. 

So you see, that while these acts taken separately seem to be innocuous and in the best of intentions, they are in fact, subconsciously, inserting UCLA propaganda into our hero's psyche. This indeed, is a most impressive recruitment tool, and something that should be utilized at every opportunity. 

While our hero's mind has not been made, whether by him, or by USC and UCLA, he has certainly been affected by the expertly maneuvered recruiting of a most talented UCLA graduate. I will take it upon myself to inform you all any further developments in this highly interesting case. 

Elimination Number

The San Francisco Giants are a mere 142 games from being eliminated from playoff contention! Brian Bocock, start making your October travel reservations...

Power Rankings - Week 3

Well, amazingly enough, we're already in Week 3 of the 2008 Major League Baseball season. And relatedly, isn't it convenient in baseball that we get to say it's just the "2008" season? In basketball you have the troubling "2005-06" deal, and football will say simply "2007" but in reality, the playoffs and Super Bowl are in 2008. So way to go MLB for simplifying our lives with your one year system. Of course, it might have something to do with the fact that baseball is a primarily outside game requiring good weather outside of temperature and precipitation extremes. But I like to think it's so us aspiring sportswriters can easily refer to a season and know exactly which one we mean. With that blisteringly brilliant introduction, let me continue to the 2008 Major League Baseball Season Week 3 Power Rankings. As always, these are simply one man's relatively humble opinion of how the baseball season has transpired to this point, not necessarily a predictor of how the season will finish. 

1. Arizona Diamondbacks:  The D-backs are 8-2 in their last 10, and are getting a ton of hitting from their young stars. The question for them will be if their bullpen can make it through the year. 

2. St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals have Braden Looper at 3-0, and apparently have someone in the rotation named Todd Wellemeyer, who may in fact set the record for most "e's" in one name. 

3. Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox have won four in a row with David Ortiz hitting .104. That's worrisome for when he inevitably starts hitting. Coco Crisp desperately needs to be traded to open up CF for Jacoby Ellsbury. 

4. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers are 8-5 without Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder playing well, and without the services of young phenom Yovani Gallardo. If Gagne proves consistent, they could be one of the best teams in the NL. 

5. Los Angeles Angels of Orange (not LA) County: The OC (don't call it that) Angels are continuing to play well without John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar. Joe Saunders has had a great start, Casey Kotchman seems to have turned the corner offensively, and K-Rod is dominant as always. Times are good in Anaheim (which is in Orange County). 

6. Oakland Athletics: Even with Dana Eveland's first so-so start, and Rich Harden once again on the DL, the A's seem to be ok. They won't be for very long without Harden, but as I said before, they might not be as bad as I thought they would be. 

7. Toronto Blue Jays: With a few breaks in their favor, and a successful Adam Lind callup, they could very well challenge in the AL East. The Killer M's (Marcum, McGowan), are the true anchors of the rotation at this point. 

8. Chicago White Sox: I really like Carlos Quentin as a breakout candidate this year, and John Danks has been dominant to start the season. They do have some young players with upside, the two just mentioned, and Nick Swisher as well. However, Pablo Ozuna seems to be getting playing time, which is unacceptable.

9. Florida Marlins: Their highest paid player is Kevin Gregg. Someone 80% of non-fantasy playing baseball fans would never have heard of. The starting rotation ERA is 7.17. How are they winning? Raise your hand if you think Hanley Ramirez is actually superman. 

10. Chicago Cubs: Losing Soriano for any extended period of time would really hurt. Fukudome, Soto, and Lee have all had very solid starts, but I still remain firmly unimpressed with the starting rotation. 

11. San Diego Padres: Returned the favor in LA, taking 2 of 3, despite being outscored 16-9. Bullpen seems to have settled down, and the starting pitching continues to be dominant at home. There's no surer thing in baseball than Jake Peavy going 7+ innings with 2 or fewer runs and 7-10 strikeouts at Petco.

12. Kansas City Royals: Billy Butler and Alex Gordon have gotten off to great starts, and already are giving Royals fans a glimpse of that "organizational savior" talent. Brian Bannister and Zack Greinke have been excellent, and with a return to form by Gil Meche, the Royals should be a lot closer to .500 than they have been recently. 

13. Baltimore Orioles: How much money could you have made betting that George Sherrill would have 6 saves in the first two weeks? Still don't see the Orioles going anywhere soon, but Adam Jones and Nick Markakis form a solid core around which to build a team. 

14. New York Yankees: Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy have a combined ERA of over 17 to this point. Obviously, they'll need to improve on that. Believe it or not, I could see the Yankees finishing behind Toronto in the East if the pitching fails to hold up. 

15. New York Mets: Reyes finally had a good night, going 4-5, and Wright looks like he'll again put up MVP-quality numbers. The question for this year will once again be with the starting pitching.

16. Philadelphia Phillies: Scoring 4 in the 9th off Valverde has to feel good. The Fighting Phils will be best remembered this season for challenging the Royals for best uniforms. 

17. Seattle Mariners: Erik Bedard is already on the DL, which is not a good sign. They need him and J.J. Putz to be back quickly. Meanwhile, Adam Jones hits his first homer, and George Sherrill has 6 saves. 

18. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers have been struggling recently, losing 1-0 to San Diego, having the bases loaded in the 9th in their 7-5 loss, also to San Diego, and then having their star closer blow a save with 2 outs in the 9th inning and lose 6-4. Those three games go differently, and they're 9-5. However you spin it though, the Dodgers are 3-7 in their last ten. Andruw Jones showing some life is a good sign, and there are positive indications that the offense is beginning to wake up. Now it's time to make sure the bullpen is awake too. 

19. Pittsburgh Pirates: Nate McLouth and Xavier Nady are tearing the cover off the ball. If Zach Duke and Paul Maholm can step it up and slot in with Gorzelanny and Snell, the Pirates will only be bad, not terrible. 

20. Minneosta Twins: The Twins have blown leads against the Tigers two consecutive nights, contributing to a three game losing streak. But Nick Blackburn and Boof Bonser starting well has to be encouraging. 

21. Detroit Tigers: The Tigers have shown signs of life, coming from behind two nights in a row, running their record to, well, 4-10. 5 homers tonight shows the offense is close to getting untracked. They desperately need Francisco Rodney and Joel Zumaya back though. 

22. Cincinnati Reds: After starting 6-4, they've lost 4 in a row. Johnny Cueto was dominant through 2 starts, then gave up 5 runs in 6 innings. Still, him, Harang, and Arroyo form a solid rotation to go with the offense. 

23. Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays are 3-7 in their last 10, namely due to losing 2 close games against the Yankees. That'll likely be the story for the season, close, but not quite there. Evan Longoria already contributing is a great sign for the future of the franchise, however. 

24. Cleveland Indians: Joe Borowski is on the DL, a massive blessing for the Indians, and a chance to try out Rafael Betancourt as the closer. However, he never even had a chance tonight as the bullpen allowed Boston to break a tie. 

25. Atlanta Braves: Chipper Jones, Yunel Escobar, Brian McCann, Tim Hudson, and John Smoltz have all had great starts to the season, which is why it's surprising they're only 5-8. If they can weather the bullpen injuries, they should be fine. 

26. Colorado Rockies: The Rockies sweep Atlanta, then get absolutely dismantled by Arizona for 2 games before winning 13-5, then almost get no-hit by Randy Wolf. Huh? I guess we're in for a year of ups and downs in Denver. 

27. Houston Astros: Another week goes by in Houston and I still don't care about the Astros.

28. San Francisco Giants: After I ranked them last, last week, the Giants went out to prove me wrong. Way to go guys! 28th this week! Somebody named John Bowker has provided a spark, and Lincecum and Cain are awesome. There's a small glimmer of hope in the mine shaft of the Giants organization.

29. Texas Rangers: They've lost 5 in a row. How long is Salty going to be in the minor leagues? They have some good young players, Ian Kinsler, Hank Blalock, Josh Hamilton, even David Murphy has some potential. Why not let Salty develop with them? Help is on the way though, with a stacked farm system. 

30. Washington Nationals: After winning 3 straight to open the year, they lost 9 in a row to start 4-10. The rotation is awful, but at least Christian Guzman and Lastings Milledge are playing well. 

Well that does it for Week 3's power rankings. Thanks for reading. Also, in sports related movie news, check out "Leatherheads" starring George Clooney and John Krasinski, very good overall movie, and definitely a fun football flick as well. 

The Padres' Bullpen

Last night against the Giants the Padres' bullpen again allowed the opposition to score the winning runs. Ok, so that was after holding them scoreless for the previous four innings, so last night's game is probably the wrong one to use to demonstrate the pen's struggles. Still, the Padre relievers as a group have the second worst ERA in baseball this season. What does this tell us about the Padres' pen and their prospects for the rest of the season? Should they be seeking reinforcements, and should we be re-evaluating the team's true strengths?

In a word, no. In three words, small sample size. In many more words that reiterate those four words, the combined twenty innings the relievers have thrown adds almost no information for us about their individual abilities. Cla Meredith is still a great groundball pitcher with excellent control who dominates righties. Joe Thatcher is still a groundballing sidearmer better against lefties but who can get righties out. Heath Bell is still overall awesome. Trevor Hoffman still has a great changeup and the same stuff he's used to get by with a sub 3 ERA for six years in a row. Enrique Gonzalez, Glendon Rusch, and Wil Ledezma probably aren't going to be very good, but Kevin Cameron and Carlos "Che" Guevara both look solid and available to be called up/activated from the DL.

More on Trevor Hoffman: according to Gameday, Hoffman's velocity is right where it was last year, his changeup still looks as nasty as ever, and he's used his slider effectively at times (he struck out Matt Kemp on three straight sliders). He had a terrible outing against Houston where he struggled with his control, but still almost escaped without allowing a run. Against the Dodgers, he gave up one run on a walk and a single. It's been four innings, two of them excellent. He's given up one extra base hit, so it's not like every ball put in play has been a rocket. It is extremely premature to conclude he's done.

Power Rankings

The extended first week of the Major League Baseball season is now over, and we've already had some surprises. Nate McLouth of the Pirates turning into Babe Ruth Jr., the Baltimore Orioles defying the experts (myself included) by starting in first place with a 5-1 record, and the Detroit Tigers are winless in their first six games. So while I would like to make these power rankings reflective of how I think things will actually turn out, at this point I will temper my expectations in deference as to how the season is currently playing out. A word of caution however, as is often said this is a marathon, not a trip to the kitchen for some midnight snacks. Ok that's not exactly the saying, but you get the idea. 

So here are my power rankings for Week 2...

1. Toronto Blue Jays: I know what you're thinking. The Toronto Blue Jays? But, I say to you, do not judge lest ye be judged. The Blue Jays just swept the Red Sox, granted at home, but that's still impressive. Their rotation has four very, very good pitchers in Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, and Marcum, and Jesse Litsch also has some potential. While the Red Sox saw Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz struggle, Marcum and McGowan looked dominant. With a Vernon Wells return to form, the Blue Jays very well could contend in the Al East. 

2. Anaheim Angels: Even without Lackey and Escobar, their pitching seems to be ok. So with them, they should be even better. 

3. New York Yankees: How long can they keep Joba Chamberlain out of the rotation? Relatedly, how long can Mike Mussina stay in the rotation? 

4. Milwaukee Brewers: They started hot last year too, but as it is always is, with a healthy Ben Sheets they should be good. Now they also need a healthy Gallardo as well.

5. Baltimore Orioles: Well. They swept the Mariners. That's a good sign. They're also still the Baltimore Orioles. That's a bad sign.

6. Chicago White Sox: They've won five in a row, including a sweep of Detroit. Still don't see them winning this year.

7. Arizona Diamondbacks: If Justin Upton continues to hit this well, they will be very dangerous. Mark Reynolds, Upton, and Chris Young are all at the top of the HR leaderboard.

8. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers were 3-6 against the Pads in Petco last year, so taking 2 of 3 is a step forward. They're battling through facing Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Jake Peavy, Chris Young, and Dan Haren, they're 2-2 so far. 

9. San Diego Padres: The starting rotation has been excellent, but the bullpen has really struggled, Hoffman has not looked good so far this year. The hitting has also been solid so far.

10. St. Louis Cardinals: Pujols still hasn't hit a homer, and yet the team is 5-2. We'll see how long that lasts, though. 

11. Kansas City Royals: The Royals certainly have some talent, so with some lucky breaks they could stay up towards the top of the Central for a few more weeks probably. 

12. Atlanta Braves: They won the two games they played against the Mets, but they lost Mike Hampton again. Did they really expect to have him around?

13. Cleveland Indians: C.C. Sabathia was rocked at Oakland, but Cliff Lee pitched well. Go figure. 

14. Boston Red Sox: They were 3-1 until they ran into a buzzsaw in Toronto, but Beckett and Buchholz struggling is worrisome. 

15. Chicago Cubs: Perhaps a little low, but I am unexcited by their rotation at this point. Fukudome has been great so far. 

16. Tampa Bay Rays: When David Price, Reid Brignac, Wade Davis, and Jake McGee are ready, this team will be dangerous. 

17. Cincinnati Reds: Johnny Cueto's debut was dazzling, and so was Edison Volquez. 

18. Florida Marlins: Would you trade the entire team for A-Rod and $7 million? These are the tough questions.

19. Texas Rangers: Josh Hamilton has started well, but Volquez was excellent. Only time will tell on that one. 

20. Philadelphia Phillies: The bats were silenced by Tim Redding, but I don't see that being a long term problem here. 

21. Oakland Athletics: I actually don't know that they will be as bad as I previously thought. Assuming of course the obvious, Rich Harden's arm bones not exploding into shards of shattered hopes. 

22. Pittsburgh Pirates: Nate McLouth and Xavier Nady are the best players in baseball. Let's just get it out now. You heard it here first. 

23. Minnesota Twins: Really not much going on here until Francisco Liriano comes back. Can't wait for that.

24. New York Mets: I really don't like Oliver Perez, and Pedro's already hurt, so we'll have to see if Santana and John Maine are enough to get by. 

25. Houston Astros: It's hard to care less about a team than I do about the Astros.

26. Colorado Rockies: They certainly are struggling. But they're not THIS bad. 

27. Seattle Mariners: With Putz out, we'll see how the bullpen fares. They already blew one win for Felix Hernandez. 

28. Washington Nationals: I'm not sure which is their number one starter, Odalis Perez or Matt Chico. 

29. Detroit Tigers: My preseason pick to win the World Series, the Tigers have really not done anything well so far. Obviously not time to panic, but definitely puzzling. 

30. San Francisco Giants: Possibly the worst lineup in baseball history. This team is Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum and a black hole. 

Well there ya have it. Stay tuned to baseball, and if I'm not too lazy, I'll do this again for Week 3.  

2008 Season Preview and Predictions

This is two baseball fans' take on the start of the season. Keep in mind Filliam is a Dodgers fan, Carl is a Padres fan, and, all things being equal, we root for the NL over the AL. Unlike other predictions, you can rest assured these will be dragged out and reviewed after the season, if only so the better predictor can celebrate his victory. With that in mind, on to the preview:

NL West

Filliam: As a Dodgers fan I would be remiss if I didn't pick the boys in blue to return to the top of the division. I like their lineup top to bottom, and a healthy Schmidt would give them a very solid 1-5 to go with a solid bullpen.

Carl: Shockingly enough, I like the Padres. I see a team that had a very good season last year (89 wins) and did enough in the offseason to maintain that level of performance. Much as it pains to admit me, the Dodgers do look very good, especially now that it looks like they're going to pick Ethier to start in left over Pierre.

Filliam: For the same reason my esteemed colleague Carl likes the Padres to win the division, I like the D-backs to finish in second. They won 90 games last year, and while they were outscored, I believe their hitters will progress enough and the rotation will benefit from the addition of Dan Haren. The Padres as I've said previously, are too reliant on one-year players, injury risks, and are starting Scott Hairston and Jody Gerut in the outfield to open the year. But, the rotation should be good, the bullpen always is, which is why I still think they'll finish over .500.

Carl: Ah, see people rag on the Padres for starting Hairston in center and McAnulty/Gerut in left, but the Dodgers are throwing out Blake DeWitt at third. I think people are overestimating how much Arizona's young players are going to improve. A modest improvement for a lot of those guys still makes their lineup below average. And their bullpen pitched way, way over its head last year, both in terms of season versus career performance and relative to their peripherals. For some reason, the Rockies just don't do it for me, probably because it's hard for me to get a handle on the magnitude of their park effects. They have 5 really good hitters in their lineup and three really bad ones, and their lineup isn't as great as it's cracked up to be. Last year, it was a little above average, slightly better than the Padres'. As a side note, the Dodgers, D-backs, and Giants all had really terrible hitting teams last year. Getting back to this year, the Giants' lineup is going to be horrific. They had a 89 OPS+ last year and subtracted the 170 OPS+ from left. Brian Bocock, who put up a .656 OPS in A-ball last year, starts the year at short for them.

Filliam: The Rockies to me were good, but fluky last year, and I think they'll be closer to 80 wins than 90. The Giants have promising young pitching but disastrously awful hitting and are clearly the bottom feeder in the division.

Filliam's Prediction:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers 88-74
2. Arizona Diamondbacks 86-76
3. San Diego Padres 83-79
4. Colorado Rockies 82-80
5. San Francisco Giants 67-95

Carl's Prediction:
1. San Diego Padres 91-71
2. Los Angeles Dodgers 89-73 *wild card
3. Arizona Diamondbacks 84-78
4. Colorado Rockies 83-81
5. San Fransisco Giants 65-97

NL Central

Carl: Looks like a two team race between the Cubs and Brewers. The Brewers hugely improved their defense by signing Cameron, moving Hall to third, and moving Braun to left. That change alone could give them 3 wins over last year. The Cubs look like a very solid team top to bottom, and I think they'll edge out the Brewers at the end of the season.

Filliam: I had the Cubs winning the division before I remembered Lou Pinella is their manager. He's terrible. If Gallardo and Sheets return healthy the Brewers will definitely challenge for the division. The Reds have some exciting young players, but in general the rest of the division is pretty weak and unexciting.

Carl: Agree with you there. If everything breaks the Reds way, they could contend, but they're probably too focused more on the future to take some risks trying to win now. Man how the Astros and the Cardinals have fallen. As for the Pirates, well, at least they probably won't use their top draft pick on a reliever this year.

Filliam's Prediction:

1. Milwaukee Brewers 86-76
2. Chicago Cubs 85-77
3. Cincinnati Reds 80-82
4. Houston Astros 76-86
5. St. Louis Cardinals 74-88
6. Pittsburgh Pirates 71-91

Carl's Prediction:
1. Cubs
2. Brewers
------.500----
3. Reds
4. Cardinals
5. Astros
6. Pirates
(Note: I'm not predicting records anymore because that's a ridiculous implication of precision that I don't want to make. Ok, no, mainly I just don't want to tally up all the wins and losses to make sure the league as a whole isn't winning more games than it's losing. I'll draw in a .500 line in the standings; that's about as precise as I can predict.)

NL East

Filliam: The Mets are the best team in the National League this year, mainly due to Johan Santana. The Mets have always had pitching problems, and although Santana won't completely solve all of their issues, he'll certainly help. The Braves should have a great offense, and Hudson, Smoltz, and Glavine in the rotation, which will be enough to compete. The Phillies have pitching issues, the Nats have well, issues, and the Marlins are rebuilding.

Carl: Yes, the Mets are good. Very shallow, but good. I think they'll avoid enough injuries to be the best team in the NL. I agree with your other assessments, and would like to throw in a compliment of Jim Bowden, who has made some solid high upside acquisitions in his quest to rebuild the Nationals.

Filliam's Predictions:

1. New York Mets 91-71
2. Atlanta Braves 87-75
3. Philadelphia Phillies 84-78
4. Washington Nationals 75-87
5. Florida Marlins 68-94

Carl's Predictions:
1. Mets
2. Braves
3. Phillies
------.500-------
4. Nats
5. Marlins

AL West

Carl: I'm really down on this division in general now that Escobar is out for the year and Lackey is missing a month. The Angels should still have enough to win the division, but they're not a particularly strong team anymore.

Filliam: I liked the Angels to win more games until the severity of Kelvim Escobar's injury was revealed, and before John Lackey got hurt. The Mariners will challenge them with Bedard and King Felix, but the Angels offense should be enough to get them through.

Carl: I'm not very impressed with the Mariners, who outperformed their runs scored/runs allowed last year, but they could have enough to push the weakened Angels. I was surprised to see they had a 104 OPS+ last year, so they found some offense from somewhere. Oakland could regret punting on this year if Rich Harden and Bobby Crosby somehow avoid injury. Ok, so that's not going to happen. Oh well. Good job by Beane acknowledging the improbability of everyone in the division suffering massive injuries while Harden and Crosby avoid them.

Filliam: Yeah, the Rangers and A's have a lot of prospects but neither should be contenders this year.

Filliam's Predictions:

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of Los Angeles no wait, Orange County 89-73
2. Seattle Mariners 86-76
3. Texas Rangers 75-87
4. Oakland A's 71-91

Carl's Predictions:
1. The Angels Angels of Anaheim
2. Mariners
------.500--------
3. A's
4. Rangers

AL Central

Filliam: The Tigers made one of the biggest acquisitions of the offseason by getting Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Add those two to an already very good team, and you have a great team. The Indians too have a playoff caliber team, and a return to form by Cliff Lee would go a long way in helping them return. If the Tigers get Joel Zumaya and Francisco Rodney back healthy they should have a good enough bullpen to get by the Indians.

Carl: My bold prediction for this year: the Tigers are not going to score 1000 runs. Cabrera and Renteria are great upgrades, but the Tigers are going to see a lot of regression from Polanco, Granderson, and Ordonez. I like the Indians to sneak by the Tigers mainly due to better pitching and pitching depth. As for the rest of the division, got anything relevant or interesting to say about them, because I certainly don't.

Filliam: The Royals are up and coming, the White Sox are, uh, a baseball team, and the Twins are rebuilding.

Carl: Nicely done.

Filliam's Predictions:

1. Detroit Tigers 96-66
2. Cleveland Indians 92-70
3. Kansas City Royals 77-85
4. Chicago White Sox 74-88
5. Minnesota Twins 68-94

Carl's Predictions:
1. Indians
2. Tigers
-------.500------
3. White Sox
4. Royals
5. Twins

AL East

Carl: Ooh, finally time for the only division that matters. That's right, it's the home of the storied Jays-Rays rambunctious rhyming rivalry. The Rays have taken it on the chin from their northern rivals, but they've done an excellent job building up their team from within. Picking first every year certainly helps with that. I don't think this is the year they pass the Jays though. My favorite part about the Blue Jays is their awesome, awesome defense. Until they cut Reed Johnson, they had a legitimate gold glove caliber defender at every position except catcher. It looks like the Rays actually adopted some of the Jays' defensive emphasis this year, adding Bartlett at short and keeping Upton in center for good. That, the addition of Matt Garza, and the continued development of their top minor league arms should greatly decrease their RA this year. I think both teams will be right around .500, with the Blue Jays a couple games up on their Floridian nemesis. Can you think of any other interesting teams that call this division home? I guess we could theoretically talk about the two best teams in baseball.

Filliam: The Red Sox have some interesting questions right now, namely can Jon Lester become a top flight starter, is Josh Beckett healthy, and can Clay Buchholz and/or Bartolo Colon be good enough to get them the division? That's more questions than you'd like from a defending world champion, but if they get satisfactory answers they will probably win the division. The Yankees are for the first time that I can remember, relying on young players on the starting staff, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy will all be a major part of the team. While this is a good thing for the future, I'm not entirely sure how their rotation will look this year. Mike Mussina was awful last year, Pettitte was good last year, but has injury issues, and has steroids drama to deal with now. So again, questions for a contending team.

Carl: I actually think the Yankees will take the division and the Red Sox the wildcard. Better offense, just enough pitching. Thoughts on the rest of the division?

Filliam: The Blue Jays have some good young players, and continue to get better, but I don't think they have enough to get over the hump. If they bring up Adam Lind and he fulfills his considerable potential, they'll have a good offense to go along with what appears to be a good rotation. The Devil...err, Rays have a ton of young talent, a ton of prospects, some more ready to contribute than others, and with some luck, will be contenders within a few years. But losing Rocco Baldelli hurts, and Scott Kazmir needs to get healthy as well. The Orioles are a solid 5 years away from being a decent team.

Carl: Oh yes, the Orioles, now more than ever complete afterthoughts. At least they're going in the right direction in rebuilding now, though.

Filliam's Predictions:

1. Boston Red Sox 95-67
2. New York Yankees 91-71
3. Toronto Blue Jays 86-76
4. Tampa Bay Rays 82-80
5. Baltimore Orioles 65-97

Carl's Predictions:
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox *wild card
3. Blue Jays
4. Rays
----.500-----
5. Orioles

Postseason

Filliam's Predictions:

AL-Detroit over Anaheim, Boston over Cleveland; Detroit over Boston

NL-New York over Milwaukee, Los Angeles over Atlanta; Los Angeles over New York

World Series-Detroit over Los Angeles

Carl's Predictions:
NL - Dodgers over Mets, Padres over Cubs, Padres over Dodgers
AL - Indians over Red Sox, Yankees over Angels, Indians over Yankees

World Series - Padres over Indians
(I'm being a homer in picking the Padres to win their division, I'm not going to just stop there and pick someone else to win the World Series.)

Awards

AL Cy Young: Erik Bedard, Seattle Mariners

NL Cy Young: Johan Santana, New York Mets

AL MVP: Grady Sizemore, CF, Cleveland Indians

NL MVP: David Wright, 3B, New York Mets

AL ROY: Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays

NL ROY: Kosuke Fukodome, CF, Chicago Cubs

Random other predictions:

Filliam: It seems to me that there are a few really good teams, a few really bad teams, and a lot in the middle. Should make for quite an interesting season. Players I tossed out for consideration in the awards categories: Prince Fielder for NL MVP, and Miguel Cabrera for AL MVP. I like our selections, but both of those guys could be close.

Carl: Randy Wolf has a huge year for the Padres. Brad Penny has a terrible year for the Dodgers. Matt Kemp takes a step back, Andruw Jones has a very good bounceback year. Pedro Martinez throws 50 innings this year and signs with the Padres next offseason. C.C. Sabathia signs an extension with Cleveland in the middle of the season. Justin Verlander disappoints. Jose Guillen disappoints, Zach Greinke has a huge year. Cole Hamels throws a no-hitter, the Mariners and A's get into a brawl, and Shane Victorino hits for the cycle.

Ouch

While perusing Oliver Perez's PECOTA card at Baseball Prospectus, I found this comment on him from the 2003 annual:

"I had seen notes that showed Perez’s fastball at 90 mph, but it sure looked better than that to me. He supports it with a tremendous changeup and tight curveball, giving him three quality pitches to work with. Perez is mature beyond his years in terms of working hitters with speed changes; somewhere, his changeup against Reggie Sanders just hit the glove. San Diego might be the only club with better and younger front-line starting pitching than Oakland. These guys are that good."

Ouch. At least Peavy's good...

Some of these young arms that were better and younger than Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, Aaron Harang, and Rich Harden:

Jake Peavy - Hey, a success. Let's just stop here.
Oliver Perez
Brian Lawrence
Dennis Tankersley
Adam Eaton
Mark Phillips
Ben Howard
Eric Cyr
Mike Bynum

Glance at this article and think about what might have been.

So what does this tell us? Never count your minor league pitching prospects until they are hatched as fully formed big league starters. Actually, if you think about this list, Peavy is one of the best pitchers in baseball, Perez was traded for a great player (coming of a 177 OPS+ year), and Eaton was used to acquire Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez. I guess that's about as good as you can hope for when dealing with minor league arms and potential. I think I would have preferred a rotation of Hudson, Zito, Mulder, Harden, Harang in their primes, though.

Padres Opening Day Roster Analysis

The Padres came into spring training with a number of questions to resolve about the roster. The left field starter and fifth rotation member were TBD, three of the five bench spots were up in the air, and the last three bullpen slots remained unclaimed. With five days to the opener, these questions have been answered and the Opening Day roster seems to be set, barring further injury or a change of heart. Here's a look through how those questions were answered and if they came up with the correct answer, in my (obviously infallible) opinion.

Disclaimer: I was really cheesed off when the Padres released Russell Branyan, so I tend to overreact to small roster moves that make no sense to my way of thinking about the team. Most of the bench and back of the bullpen spots are all about small sample size theater, so the true impact of the back of the roster construction is very small. We're not choosing between Juan Pierre and Matt Kemp for 700 PA here. Still, in the NL West, every game counts.

5th Starter's Spot: Justin Germano has been declared the victor in this battle after everything worked out in the Padres' interests nicely in spring training. Germano had a very good camp; the second best option, Glendon Rusch, had a very good camp and is ready to help if Germano falters or Wolf is injured; the inexplicable front runner entering camp, Shawn Estes, who is an inferior pitcher to Germano and Rusch, had a terrible camp and will start with Portland to work on stuff. Germano is the fifth starter until/unless Prior returns. Rusch can step in if Germano falters or Wolf goes down and hopefully not embarrass himself (PECOTA has him at an above replacement level 4.95 ERA, and presumably he could be better if he's healthier, which the Padres seem to think he is). Ideally LeBlanc will be ready to help in the second half if anyone goes down beyond that; he held his own in major league camp this spring.

Left Field Starter: Deciding to delay Headley's service clock to control him for another year and the injury to Edmonds left Gerut and McAnulty the left fielders by default. The addition of Huber should create a passable left field platoon. I'm not particularly excited about any of these guys, but maybe one of them will catch fire and keep Headley down for a while. When Edmonds comes back, Hairston moves back to left and probably platoons with the hotter of Gerut or McAnulty.

Bullpen spots: Hoffman, Bell, Thatcher, and Meredith were guaranteed spots. Hampson and Guevara (who I really like and hope is on the team when he's healthy) start the year on the DL, and Ledezma, Rusch, and Gonzalez get the last three spots. Rusch is the necessary long man, but I don't get the inclusion of Ledezma and Gonzalez. Ledezma has good stuff but needs to refine his control. He had a superficially good spring ERA-wise, but in 13 IP he's had 8 BBs and 6 K's. Gonzalez also has a mediocre track record and wasn't impressive this spring. Oh well. Neither of them is going to pitch in many high leverage situations, and if they aren't very good they'll get booted in favor of Cameron, Hampson, and Guevara quickly enough.

Bench Spots: I think the club did an solid job picking their bench players. Crabbe is the obligatory light hitting fast scrappy guy, who will mainly be used as a middle infielder and center fielder. Clark and Gerut provide good lefty bats off the bench, and the trade for Huber fills the need for a righty pinch hitter. Barrett is the backup catcher, and with a 12 man pitching staff that's all you get on the bench. It looks like they picked the best hitters that have the necessary versatility.

In summary, a solid job filling out the team. I think when Headley gets called back up he'll be mostly the starter in left, with Hairston spelling Giles and Edmonds regularly. I'd also expect Hampson, Guevara, and Cameron to cycle into the back three spots in the bullpen as Ledezma and Gonzalez struggle or other guys get hurt.

The best news of all about the roster this year: Geoff Blum is not the first right handed pinch hitter off of the bench.

March Madness

March is a time for madness. This much we know. Madness as in, 48 college basketball games in four days. Madness as in playing two regular season baseball games in Japan at 3am Pacific time, then having both teams return to playing exhibition games for a few days, then back to regular season games. With all of that over, however, I'm going to be your guide to the upcoming madness the last few remaining days of March will provide. So, pack your bags and come with me on a journey. 

With the NCAA Men's Division 1 Basketball Championship breaking records for longest name and attendance, the tournament will move into regional action. The most interesting matchups include Washington State-North Carolina, Louisville-Tennessee, Stanford-Texas, and Wisconsin-Davidson. That last game features probably the best story of the tournament so far, embodied by Stephen Curry of Davidson. Curry is averaging 35 points through his first two games, and there's no reason to expect he won't be around that total again on Friday. In addition to the rather interesting pronunciation of his first name, Curry also could be the first one man team to advance to the Elite 8. If you saw his performances against Gonzaga and Georgetown, you'd have noticed that his teammates valuable services exist mainly to support his heroic efforts. As an "underdog" fan, I'll be pulling hard for Davidson to continue its run, in the fleeting hope that they knock off North Carolina in the Final Four. 

Baseball is back! And by back, I mean the Red Sox and A's are back and the rest of the teams are still basing their decisions on statistics racked up against pitchers like Byung-Hyun Kim. 

In any case, while the return of America's pastime to the forefront of television consciousness is most welcome, I can't help but feel that some teams still think they're in spring training. For your consideration, I submit the Florida Marlins. While teams not expected to compete such as the A's, Giants, and Pirates are at least throwing out promising starters such as Joe Blanton, Barry Zito and Ian Snell for opening day duty, the Marlins are starting...Mark Hendrickson. The same Mark Hendrickson that last season was beat out for starts by Brett Tomko. With Miami-Dade County committed to building a new stadium, the team rewards this development by starting Mark Hendrickson. Good luck creating excitement for baseball in South Florida. 

All that being said, we're hurtling towards exciting finishes in both college basketball and professional basketball, with classic matchups possible in both championships. North Carolina and UCLA are both favored to return to the championship game, and while not necessarily rivals, they are two of the most storied programs in college basketball history. Meanwhile in the NBA, the Celtics and Lakers are at the top of their respective conferences. Even though the Eastern Conference looks more and more like North Dakota High School Basketball each day. Both of these matchups have as much intrigue and excitement as the "Lost"-"CSI" battle on Thursday nights. 

So as you navigate through the raging waters of March sports, look for Stephen Curry, Mark Hendrickson, and the entire Western Conference to add more madness to an already crazy month. In closing, I'll give you my Fantasy Baseball tip of the week, pick up Willy Aybar, the starting third baseman for the Tampa Bay Rays. I feel like he'll be entrenched in that spot for a long, long time.

How I Learned to Stop Worrying (about ERA) and Love RA

I hate unearned runs. More specifically, I hate their arbitrary separation from earned runs. In the humble opinion of this excellent actor, they are the worst stat in baseball today. Sure, a stat like wins is terrible and often very misleading, but anyone that has ever thought about wins for more than a second realizes their inherent flaws. When arguing about pitcher quality, anyone who wants to make an intelligent comparison focuses on runs allowed, innings pitched, strikeouts, things of this nature. But everyone uses ERA as their quick and easy pitcher comparison stat. It's universally accepted. In comparing pitchers, you look at ERA, adjust it for the home park and/or league, account for innings pitched, and voila, you know which pitcher is better. Except the decision to use ERA instead of RA (runs allowed, which includes earned and unearned runs) could create a serious flaw in the conclusion.

First, the case against separating earned and unearned runs. As anyone who has ever watched a baseball game knows, errors are very arbitrary. Hometown scorekeeping frequently skews the awarding of errors, so that home team is more likely to get hits than errors. Plays where a fielder gets a terrible jump on the ball and doesn't come close to it are scored as hits, while a harder play where the fielder gets a great jump and ranges very far but bobbles a ball is scored an error. Fielding mistakes by outfielders are rarely scored as errors, while most mistakes by infielders are ruled errors, at least those that aren't a result of a lack of range. This unfairly penalizes fly ball pitchers, as they're deemed to be responsible for more of their runs than ground ball pitchers. Finally, pitchers are actually responsible for most of the unearned runs they allow. That an error helped prolong the rally doesn't excuse the other hits allowed by the pitcher that allow the rally to continue. Attempting to adjust ERA for the quality of the defense is a good idea, but the simple use of errors is a very flawed way to do this, in the same way that the use of errors is a very flawed way to evaluate defense.

So, how does this affect our evaluation of pitchers? Well, the comparison that sent me off on this kick is that of Brandon Webb versus Jake Peavy. They've had extremely similar careers to this point: Webb has 1089 IP with 390 ER, for a 3.22 ERA, Peavy has 1087 IP with 400 ER, for a 3.31 ERA. So even before adjusting for ballpark, Webb appears to be the superior pitcher. Once you adjust for park, Webb ends up with a 144 ERA+ and Peavy with a 119 ERA+. It's apparently not even close. But wait, Webb is an extreme groundball pitcher, and as such gives up many more unearned runs than Peavy. That's not a function of Webb's defense, that is a result of the inherent pitching ability of Brandon Webb and the way he attacks hitters. Regardless of how good his defense is, he's going to allow more unearned runs than Jake Peavy over the long haul. As such, the unearned runs must be included in any analysis of his pitching. So if you include those, suddenly Webb has allowed 456 total runs, versus 427 total runs allowed for Peavy. After adjusting for park, Webb is still better, but it's certainly closer than it appears from a cursory glance at ERA or park adjusted ERA.

Use of unearned runs in a pitching analysis makes a big difference in looking at the NL Cy Young race last year. Myron at Friar Forecast took a look at the value of Peavy and Webb last year and concluded that if we ignore unearned runs, Webb was actually slightly more valuable than Peavy last year (the extra innings and more difficult ballpark to pitch in outweigh Peavy's more impressive raw ERA). However, if you re-run in the analysis as Myron does in the comments section (prompted by me, actually) to account for the unearned runs, it tilts the scales definitively in Peavy's favor. Campaigning for Peavy in this context was actually what set me off on my anti-earned/unearned runs crusade.

There are some other interesting comparisons to look at through the lens or earned vs. total runs allowed. Last year Greg Maddux put up a 4.14 ERA in the cavernous Petco Park, while Derek Lowe compiled a 3.88 ERA in the neutral Dodger Stadium (yes, Dodger Stadium is basically neutral, perhaps even slightly favoring hitters). They pitched 198 and 199 1/3 innings, respectively. Lowe threw slightly more innings with a lower ERA in a more hitter friendly park; it seems like a slam dunk that he would have been more valuable. So why does VORP (a measure of a pitchers value compared to a generic freely available replacement, which adjusts for park, league, and yes, uses total runs instead of earned ones specifically) say Maddux was worth 5 runs more last year than Lowe? I'll give you a hint: it's the subject of this entire post, and the last comment in my parenthetical explanation of VORP was something of a spoiler. Yes, that's right, Maddux allowed only a single unearned run last year, while Lowe allowed a whopping fourteen. It's funny how the earned/unearned run split colors our perception. Lowe is viewed as a very good number three pitcher, while Maddux is considered more of a number four guy and considerably shakier. And yet, Maddux was better than Lowe last year.

One final comparison, just for fun. Matsuzaka had a 4.40 ERA last year in a season considered mostly a disappointment. However, he didn't allow a single unearned run. Oliver Perez posted an excellent 3.56 ERA, but he allowed twenty (!) unearned runs. That is definitely an indication the Mets defense was shaky behind him but Perez certainly bears some portion of the blame for those runs. If 20 of Matsuzaka's runs were converted to unearned runs, perhaps by moving 8 errors committed by the Red Sox into 8 of Matsuzaka's bad innings, suddenly he's got a 3.52 ERA and is celebrated as a huge success story. If all of Oliver Perez's unearned runs were earned, maybe the Mets' scorekeeper doesn't like to award errors ever, then he's got a questionable 4.58 ERA. Suddenly the Pirates organization doesn't look like quite such an epic failure for trading Perez back away for peanuts. Sorry, Pirates, most of your other epic failures can't be explained away by looking at unearned runs. The point of this hypothetical is that small changes that have little to do with how Matsuzaka or Perez pitched would cause massive changes in their ERAs and in how they're perceived.

The moral of this story: errors are arbitrary, and bad defense happens to everyone, regardless of their ERA/RA split (RA is ERA but with all runs allowed included). When evaluating past performance of pitchers, RA is a better tool than ERA.

As a postscript, this is an interesting article by David Gassko looking at ground ball pitchers. He confirms that groundball pitchers do allow more unearned runs than other pitchers. 85% of errors occur on groundballs. This article by Michael Wolverton makes the same case I'm trying to make here, only using actual numbers to back it up: that preventing unearned runs is a skill just like preventing earned runs. Wolverton summarizes it succinctly, "Errors will happen. Good pitchers will minimize the damage caused by them. That is, a good pitcher will allow fewer runners on base before the errors happen (so there aren't runners to score on the errors), and will allow fewer hits and walks after errors happen (so the runners who reached on errors won't score)." He finds that, yes, pitchers good at preventing earned runs are also good at preventing unearned runs in general. If he had adjusted for groundball rate, presumably this correlation would have been even stronger.

Why do we love? What is it about an individual that makes us feel very strongly about them? Is it that we share common goals and aspirations? Or is it that they possess a singularly intangible quality that a limited amount of people notice. These are some of life's biggest questions. 

But they're not about relationships.

No, ladies and gentlemen, when I ask those questions I'm not asking from the relationship perspective, I'm asking about fantasy baseball. Why is it that those of us among the Hot Ham Water community are fans of specific players, for example, Tim Lincecum? In this case, I think Lincecum is a combination of goals and aspirations, and intangibles. Which, in turn, makes him even more "desirable." He has the cold, hard statistics that bear out his talent, and he has that certain something, that intangible quality that leads one to believe he will be an incredible major league talent. Another example of a player who just seems to "have it" is Jake Peavy. When you watch him pitch, he has ridiculous talent, and he has the intensity and competitive spirit that leads to greatness. And in another example, this one outside of the world of sports, George Clooney comes to mind as someone who fits that description. He has acting chops, as shown by his excellent performance in "O Brother, Where Art Thou?" and someone who can make any movie better with his charm and suaveness. Tim Lincecum has that kind of ability. Unfortunately, it appears he will continue to toil for a poor quality team in San Francisco, instead of going to pitch for a contender. 

One of the best parts about fantasy baseball is the ability to lock in on your favorite players and follow their careers from the minors to the majors.  Somehow, I managed to not get Lincecum on any of my three teams this fantasy baseball season. As depressing as that is, a few of the other plays that I feel this way about are currently residing on rosters at least in part controlled by me. While I know that these gut feelings of mine do not conclusively lead to hall of fame careers, it does provide for much more enjoyment and satisfaction. Again, to put things into entertainment terms, having players on your team you consistently root for is like seeing a movie where the plot doesn't necessarily interest you, but the actors do. I'm not a Giants fan, in fact, I despise the Giants, but Lincecum is one of my favorite fantasy players. 

So someday soon hopefully I'll be able to acquire Lincecum on one of my teams, and happiness will prevail across the land. Or, I could just win my three leagues and the $1500-ish that goes along with that. Happiness would definitely prevail across the land then too.

Until then I'll keep wondering about just why I love Tim Lincecum. 

Mailbag

Well! Ladies and gentlemen, it has been far too long between posts here at Hot Ham Water. I personally apologize for this as I (and I believe my co-bloggers too) have been wrapped up in the madness that is fantasy baseball drafting season. While the season is not nearly over, today has provided somewhat of a lull in the action, an eye of the storm, if you will. Today, I would like to lovingly take a page from the Bill Simmons playbook and create my own mail bag from which to respond. As always, these are completely fake e-mails sent by non-existant readers...

Q: Ian, you know I'm completely and madly in love with you, why won't you run away with me?

--Becky Smith, Pittsburgh, PA

A: Because you live in Pittsburgh. Move to California. 

oops, sorry wrong mailbag...MOVING ON...

Q: Can Randy Moss have the same impact for the New England Patriots this upcoming year as he did last year?

--Alvin Chipmunk, Rancho Cucamonga, CA

A: Well Alvin, I don't think so. And I'll tell you why. Moss came into New England with no expectations other than possibly negative ones, which took off most of the pressure he had on him in Oakland. While he had previously handled himself like an upset 12 year old girl, the lack of pressure and possibly the calming influence of Bill Belichick allowed him to ease into the season without an undue amount of stress. Whether this is a permanent maturation, we won't know until the season starts, but my gut tells me with the now high expectations, Moss will start to revert back to his old ways. Another possible reason for the record breaking season he had last year was the fact he was playing for a contract. In fact, today Moss signed a 3 year $27 million dollar contract. With that out of the way, one would think he would possibly decline somewhat. Kind of like an Adrian Beltre decline from possibly an artificially high, high, to say a very solid level of production. Maybe something like 12 touchdowns and 1,200 yards, which would still put him among the best wide receivers, just not the end all be all at the position like he was last year. 

Q: Will Asante Samuel push the Eagles into contention in the NFC?

--Becky Smith, Pittsburgh, PA

A: Wow Becky you sure are sending in a lot of questions. Well I hope so because an Eagles-Chargers Super Bowl matchup would be fantastic for my betting career. 

Q: Will Chris Carpenter make a full and complete recovery from Tommy John surgery and be the dominant ace he once was? 

--Ron Burgundy, San Diego, CA

A: Yes Ron, yes he will. Without a doubt. Carpenter is barely older than Derek Jeter and although he has a history of injuries, he clearly will regain the form that made him a Cy Young winner. And when he does I will return to this post and point out to all of you just how right I was. 

Q: Did you know the Dodgers experimented with vest uniforms in 1999?

--Steve Carrell, Holmby Hills, California

A: I did know that Steve, but thanks for bringing it up. While I am as big a fan of the vest uniform as the next guy, and arguably more so, that was a terrible mistake. When you have a classically identifiable, traditional uniform, the best thing to do is NOT play around with it. Do you hear that Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, UCLA, USC, Notre Dame, and Marlins?

Q: What do you think of the hit NBC show, "Chuck?" Starring Zachary Levi as the endearingly nerdy eponymous lead?

--Zachary Levi, Los Feliz, California

A: I love it, Zach. Love it. For some reason it makes me really enjoy seeing Los Angeles, and also I am a big fan of the characters and the overall tone of the show. Spy "stuff" has always interested me, and the show mixes humor, action, and emotion quite well. Keep up the good work. 

Q: Ian, is it just me or does John Travolta look startlingly good in "Hairspray?" 

--David Bergstedt, Carlsbad, California

A: Yup, these are my readers...

I know this has been painfully short for a mail bag, but duty calls. Keep sending in those e-mails and I'll get to more of them next time. 

My First Baseball Game

Inspired by a somewhat recent post at the great Padres blog Ducksnorts, I'd like to write about the first baseball game I remember attending. I remember it mainly because I remember Tony Gwynn nearing 2,000 hits for his career, and there was an outside chance he'd reach that milestone at the game I was at. He needed four to make it. The game was August 6, 1993, and I was five years old. A doubleheader was scheduled, but it was unlikely we'd be able to stay for both games, so we wanted a vintage Gwynn, 4-4 performance in the early game so we could witness history.

Baseball-Reference's box score tells me the game started at 5:06 PM. That seems to match my memory of an evening-ish start; it certainly wasn't a day-night doubleheader. The first game ran a little over three hours, meaning the night game wasn't starting until almost 9. Almost 9 was a little late-ish for 5 year old Ben (er, carl), so the first game of the double-header was all he would see.

My main memories of the game are only of a lot of cheering. I can recall some sense of the Padres' best pitcher throwing for them that night. That was the case, as Andy Benes toed the rubber for the Friars that night. For a long time I would have guessed that Andy Ashby was the starter, so some part of the starting pitcher's identity (namely, his first name) stayed with me. Benes posted a 109 ERA+ in 230 IP that year, good numbers undoubtedly, yet probably not up to the ace level hoped for when the Padres took him with the first overall pick of the 1988 draft.

I think I can remember Tony Gwynn having a good game. The box score certainly confirms this: he was 3-3 on the day with two intentional walks, leaving him one shy of his historic hit at the end of the first game. In the bottom of the first he singled home the first run of the game. Baseball-reference's description of the play has it as a line drive single to short left-center field. It came on the second pitch of the at bat; it was probably one of Gwynn's masterpieces, taking an unhittable pitch on the outside corner and flicking it the other way. He singled again in the third, this time on a line drive to right. He worked the pitcher for five pitches, before getting a good pitch and turning on it to smack it to right (or so I imagine from the box score description). His hit helped fuel a 3 run outburst, putting the Padres up 4-0. He came up again in the fourth with runners on second and third, but the Rockies made the wise decision to intentionally walk him, possibly denying me the opportunity to witness his 2,000 hit later in the game. In the sixth he singled again, knocking the second pitch up middle on the ground. This put runners on first and second with no outs, yet the Padres failed to capitalize, ending the inning up 4-1.

In the top of the seventh, Benes ran into some trouble, giving up a leadoff homer, loading the bases, and giving up one run while recording only one out. In from the bullpen trotted a young, unproven reliever with two career saves to his name, unaccompanied by any peeling bells. Yes, Trevor Hoffman would look to preserve the narrow 4-3 lead in the seventh inning. He struck out his first batter faced, presumably relying upon his fastball in the 90s, his change-up undeveloped until the next year. He induced a groundout from the next batter to end the threat and maintain the lead, and Hoffman was well on the way to the first of 522 saves as a Padre.

The bottom of the seventh brought Gwynn to the plate at 1,999 hits. I can vaguely remember the cheering for Gwynn as he approached the plate for this at bat, followed quickly by disappointment as Gwynn accepted another intentional free pass. If only Don Baylor, the Rockies' manager at the time, has opted to pitch to Tony. If only the previous batter hadn't bunted into a double play, turning runners on first and second into a single runner at second with two outs. If he had just popped out, maybe I could have seen the milestone hit. But it was not to be. Hoffman notched his first save by retiring the Rockies in the 8th and 9th, the lone blemish against him a two out single. The Padres went down 1-2-3 in the bottom of the 8th, and Tony would have to wait for later that night to reach his milestone.

In the later game, Gwynn went hitless in his first three plate appearances before singling through the middle in the sixth. It was his mom's 58th birthday, and it was exactly six years before his 3,000 hit in Olympic Stadium in Montreal.

So that's what happened in the first trip to the ballpark I made that I can remember. With such an auspicious beginning, how could I possibly resist becoming a huge baseball fan?