An Analysis of the Padres' Current Situation

It's the end of the first week in May, and as a fan I am ready to concede the season. I'll still watch every game I can and root for them, and I still think this is a team as talented as the Dodgers and D-Backs. Unfortunately, the reality of the situation is that the Padres are 10 games back of the D-Backs and 6.5 games back of the Dodgers. That is a ton of ground to make up, even if the Padres are actually a better team.

I wouldn't advocate blowing up the team yet, as miracles do happen in sports, and players are probably not going to lose significant trade value. Holding onto tradeable assets like Brian Giles, Randy Wolf, or Tadahito Iguchi until June still would allow them to be moved before the trading deadline for a decent return. The focus should gradually start shifting from winning this year to evaluating the team for next year. They are set at catcher, first, probably second, short, third, and probably left for next year. They desperately need a solution at center field; to that end they should probably give Scott Hairston the majority of the playing time in center from here on out to see if he can handle it defensively and if he can hit at all. My personal preferred solution is to shift Matt Antonelli to center and sign Mark Ellis as a free agent next year, but it looks like the ship has sailed on moving Antonelli. Venable is another internal candidate, but he'd have to destroy AAA this year to merit consideration as a starting option. Headley looks like the left fielder next year, but McAnulty should be given most of the playing time this year to either establish some trade value, establish himself as a viable starting option, or establish that he'll never be more than a fourth outfielder. Pitching-wise, it makes sense to try out Ledezma on the off chance he can harness his stuff enough to be a back end starter. LeBlanc should be ready for next season, and maybe Inman or Carrillo will be as well. Maybe LeBlanc will get a look in September, but those guys don't really factor into plans for this year.

As for what to do with guys with possible value to a contender: for Wolf and Iguchi, you would need to get something of actual value back, because these guys will likely qualify as type B free agents and can be offered arbitration to get draft picks. I'd guess Brian Giles will likely qualify as a B free agent too, but he'd probably accept arbitration since he'd make a lot more than that way than in free agency. Many teams could use a starter like Randy Wolf, particularly if he can mostly maintain his hot start for another month. The Braves come to mind as a team with a desperate need, and Brent Lillibridge could be an interesting return for him. Lillibridge could be a long term replacement for Khalil Greene at shortstop, or he could shift to center and be the answer there. Or he could suck and be the answer nowhere. Giles seems like a fit with the Indians, who could use some more offense from their corner outfielders. I don't really know who they could ask for in return, but that's ok, I also don't know if he has a no trade clause, if the Padres are interested in exercising his option for next year, and any other possibly right field external right field candidates that could be better than him. So this is all wild speculation. I'm not sure who would have a need for Iguchi. Him starting to hit better might help create a better market for his services, but teams aren't so wild about giving up lots for a second baseman.

When a team gets into a position like the Padres are, in last place despite expectations of contention, fans like to criticize someone, usually the front office. Sometimes it's not errors by the front office. Sometimes it's just randomness. Last year Mark Kotsay had a 57 OPS+. The two years before that he was at 88 and 97. He's never been as good as Edmonds at any point in his career. Yet here he is putting up a 122 OPS+ this year in the early going. Maybe the Braves scouts are better than the Padres' scouts; that's quite possible in the overall scheme of things - they did a ridiculous amount of winning over the past decade and a half. Maybe in this case the Braves got lucky and the Padres did not. The Padres nearly won the division last year with basically the same team as the one this year. Mike Cameron and Milton Bradley have proven to be key losses, but Wolf has been a key gain, and Iguchi should have been an improvement at second. This could have been a division winning team this year, and the difference between leading the division and owning a 12-21 record is not Aaron Rowand in center instead of Jim Edmonds. It's not Kyle Lohse or Hiroki Kuroda in the fifth spot instead of Justin Germano. The slow start this year has been caused by the breakdown of almost every player on the roster, including most of those players that were instrumental in winning the division last year. For that reason, there is basically nothing the front office could have done to stop this from happening. Sometimes you just get unlucky.