Floundering Friars, Surging Snakes, and Down in the Dumps Dodgers

I'd like to write something analyzing the events of the first part of the season that's occurred. Unfortunately, for almost every potential topic, I come back to the same refrain: small sample size. Padre bullpen getting torched: small sample size. Padre offense not being worth a darn: small sample size. The Diamondbacks being awesome and firing on all cylinders: small sample size. Andruw Jones looks like the worst kid on a little league team with his flailing attempts at sliders: small sample size. The Dodgers in general can't really hit: small sample size. You get the picture.

Thus, my outlook on what has transpired to this point, specifically the D-Backs' dominating lead over the rest of the division, is significantly more optimistic than the average Padre, Rockie, or Dodgers' fan. Sure, the Diamondbacks are crushing the ball this year, but I still remember their terrible offense from last year, when they tied for the third worst team OPS+ in baseball with an 89.* ** So I remember that terrible offense from last year, and I realize they have almost the exact same players contributing this year, so I am optimistic the offense is in for some serious regression. Sure, young players, which they have a lot of, generally improve as they age, but they don't generally magically transform overnight from a .683 OPS to an .838 OPS like Stephen Drew is doing thus far this year.

* Trivia question: which three offenses last year were at or below the 89 OPS+ mark? Answer at the bottom of this post.
** Yes, I'm totally trying out the Pozterisk style of annotating my posts. Scroll down to the bottom of this post here to see this term used by its inventor. Also, just read all of Posnanski's blog because Joe Posnanski is the best sportswriter in the world today.


I also think the Diamondbacks' bullpen will struggle this year, given that their two most highly leveraged relievers have terrible peripherals (that would be Tony Pena and Brandon Lyon, and yes, those are terrible as in worse-than-Trevor-Hoffman bad peripherals).

Given this possibly optimistic view that the Snakes are in for a fall back to earth, and my general unwillingness to accept the Padres' and Dodgers' offensive struggles as anything more than a small sample size blip, it is no wonder I consider this division far from decided. That 6 game lead certainly helps the D-Backs, though. Last year's AL West race, generally considered a cakewalk for the Angels in the final month of the season after the M's collapsed, was decided by 6 games. 6 games is a large deficit to make up, and requires the Padres, Dodgers, or Rockies to significantly outplay the Snakes to overcome it. To sum up, I'm not worried about what this start says about the relevant talent levels of the Diamondbacks and the Padres, but I am worried about the practical result of it, which is a 5 game lead for Arizona.

Despite the small sample size, there are a couple of Padres I am very much worried about. Jim Edmonds and Scott Hairston have started very slowly, which just adds to the evidence existing before the season that the former is pretty much done and the latter just can't hit major league pitching. If these suspicions continue to be confirmed by their play, the Padres are without a viable centerfielder, which could be a problem. Maybe. Maybe Chris Young can just work on getting everything hit to either left or right field. Dodger fans, if I were a Dodger fan this means I would also be worried about Andruw Jones. I was expecting a bounceback close to pre-2007 form, but his performance to this point in the season suggests that last year was not a fluke, and this might be his true talent level now.

The main player I am concerned about based solely on his 2008 performance is Heath Bell. Yes, the Heath Bell with a 3.55 ERA, which was below 1 before today. Looking at the numbers, his strikeout rate has fallen apart, with 5 in 12 2/3 innings, and his groundball rate has collapsed from 59% to 36%. These are numbers from a very small sample size, but from observing him pitch it appears his stuff has slipped too. From fangraphs (scroll to the bottom of that link), his fastball velocity is down 3 mph from last year's, and he's throwing the fastball a lot more this year 80% this year versus 64% last year. These numbers aren't a reversion back to his old New York struggles; even while he was struggling there he was throwing hard, striking large bunches of guys out, and getting lots of ground balls, so this appears to be an entirely new development. I have no idea what the problem is, if there really is a problem; it could just be he needs a little time to find his command or get fully loosened up or whatever. I'm guessing the Padres know better than me what's going on here, so I hope they have a good solution in mind. Or maybe this is still a case of overreacting to a small sample size.

Trivia Answer: The Royals were the worst last year, with a team OPS+ of 85, thanks to one person on the team with over 100 PA compiling an OPS+ over 100 - Billy Butler, who eeked out a 105. The White Sox were the second worst despite a 150 from Jim Thome. And everyone's favorite horrific offensive team, the San Francisco Giants, tied with the Diamondbacks with an 89 OPS+.