Elimination Number

The San Francisco Giants are a mere 142 games from being eliminated from playoff contention! Brian Bocock, start making your October travel reservations...

Power Rankings - Week 3

Well, amazingly enough, we're already in Week 3 of the 2008 Major League Baseball season. And relatedly, isn't it convenient in baseball that we get to say it's just the "2008" season? In basketball you have the troubling "2005-06" deal, and football will say simply "2007" but in reality, the playoffs and Super Bowl are in 2008. So way to go MLB for simplifying our lives with your one year system. Of course, it might have something to do with the fact that baseball is a primarily outside game requiring good weather outside of temperature and precipitation extremes. But I like to think it's so us aspiring sportswriters can easily refer to a season and know exactly which one we mean. With that blisteringly brilliant introduction, let me continue to the 2008 Major League Baseball Season Week 3 Power Rankings. As always, these are simply one man's relatively humble opinion of how the baseball season has transpired to this point, not necessarily a predictor of how the season will finish. 

1. Arizona Diamondbacks:  The D-backs are 8-2 in their last 10, and are getting a ton of hitting from their young stars. The question for them will be if their bullpen can make it through the year. 

2. St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals have Braden Looper at 3-0, and apparently have someone in the rotation named Todd Wellemeyer, who may in fact set the record for most "e's" in one name. 

3. Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox have won four in a row with David Ortiz hitting .104. That's worrisome for when he inevitably starts hitting. Coco Crisp desperately needs to be traded to open up CF for Jacoby Ellsbury. 

4. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers are 8-5 without Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder playing well, and without the services of young phenom Yovani Gallardo. If Gagne proves consistent, they could be one of the best teams in the NL. 

5. Los Angeles Angels of Orange (not LA) County: The OC (don't call it that) Angels are continuing to play well without John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar. Joe Saunders has had a great start, Casey Kotchman seems to have turned the corner offensively, and K-Rod is dominant as always. Times are good in Anaheim (which is in Orange County). 

6. Oakland Athletics: Even with Dana Eveland's first so-so start, and Rich Harden once again on the DL, the A's seem to be ok. They won't be for very long without Harden, but as I said before, they might not be as bad as I thought they would be. 

7. Toronto Blue Jays: With a few breaks in their favor, and a successful Adam Lind callup, they could very well challenge in the AL East. The Killer M's (Marcum, McGowan), are the true anchors of the rotation at this point. 

8. Chicago White Sox: I really like Carlos Quentin as a breakout candidate this year, and John Danks has been dominant to start the season. They do have some young players with upside, the two just mentioned, and Nick Swisher as well. However, Pablo Ozuna seems to be getting playing time, which is unacceptable.

9. Florida Marlins: Their highest paid player is Kevin Gregg. Someone 80% of non-fantasy playing baseball fans would never have heard of. The starting rotation ERA is 7.17. How are they winning? Raise your hand if you think Hanley Ramirez is actually superman. 

10. Chicago Cubs: Losing Soriano for any extended period of time would really hurt. Fukudome, Soto, and Lee have all had very solid starts, but I still remain firmly unimpressed with the starting rotation. 

11. San Diego Padres: Returned the favor in LA, taking 2 of 3, despite being outscored 16-9. Bullpen seems to have settled down, and the starting pitching continues to be dominant at home. There's no surer thing in baseball than Jake Peavy going 7+ innings with 2 or fewer runs and 7-10 strikeouts at Petco.

12. Kansas City Royals: Billy Butler and Alex Gordon have gotten off to great starts, and already are giving Royals fans a glimpse of that "organizational savior" talent. Brian Bannister and Zack Greinke have been excellent, and with a return to form by Gil Meche, the Royals should be a lot closer to .500 than they have been recently. 

13. Baltimore Orioles: How much money could you have made betting that George Sherrill would have 6 saves in the first two weeks? Still don't see the Orioles going anywhere soon, but Adam Jones and Nick Markakis form a solid core around which to build a team. 

14. New York Yankees: Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy have a combined ERA of over 17 to this point. Obviously, they'll need to improve on that. Believe it or not, I could see the Yankees finishing behind Toronto in the East if the pitching fails to hold up. 

15. New York Mets: Reyes finally had a good night, going 4-5, and Wright looks like he'll again put up MVP-quality numbers. The question for this year will once again be with the starting pitching.

16. Philadelphia Phillies: Scoring 4 in the 9th off Valverde has to feel good. The Fighting Phils will be best remembered this season for challenging the Royals for best uniforms. 

17. Seattle Mariners: Erik Bedard is already on the DL, which is not a good sign. They need him and J.J. Putz to be back quickly. Meanwhile, Adam Jones hits his first homer, and George Sherrill has 6 saves. 

18. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers have been struggling recently, losing 1-0 to San Diego, having the bases loaded in the 9th in their 7-5 loss, also to San Diego, and then having their star closer blow a save with 2 outs in the 9th inning and lose 6-4. Those three games go differently, and they're 9-5. However you spin it though, the Dodgers are 3-7 in their last ten. Andruw Jones showing some life is a good sign, and there are positive indications that the offense is beginning to wake up. Now it's time to make sure the bullpen is awake too. 

19. Pittsburgh Pirates: Nate McLouth and Xavier Nady are tearing the cover off the ball. If Zach Duke and Paul Maholm can step it up and slot in with Gorzelanny and Snell, the Pirates will only be bad, not terrible. 

20. Minneosta Twins: The Twins have blown leads against the Tigers two consecutive nights, contributing to a three game losing streak. But Nick Blackburn and Boof Bonser starting well has to be encouraging. 

21. Detroit Tigers: The Tigers have shown signs of life, coming from behind two nights in a row, running their record to, well, 4-10. 5 homers tonight shows the offense is close to getting untracked. They desperately need Francisco Rodney and Joel Zumaya back though. 

22. Cincinnati Reds: After starting 6-4, they've lost 4 in a row. Johnny Cueto was dominant through 2 starts, then gave up 5 runs in 6 innings. Still, him, Harang, and Arroyo form a solid rotation to go with the offense. 

23. Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays are 3-7 in their last 10, namely due to losing 2 close games against the Yankees. That'll likely be the story for the season, close, but not quite there. Evan Longoria already contributing is a great sign for the future of the franchise, however. 

24. Cleveland Indians: Joe Borowski is on the DL, a massive blessing for the Indians, and a chance to try out Rafael Betancourt as the closer. However, he never even had a chance tonight as the bullpen allowed Boston to break a tie. 

25. Atlanta Braves: Chipper Jones, Yunel Escobar, Brian McCann, Tim Hudson, and John Smoltz have all had great starts to the season, which is why it's surprising they're only 5-8. If they can weather the bullpen injuries, they should be fine. 

26. Colorado Rockies: The Rockies sweep Atlanta, then get absolutely dismantled by Arizona for 2 games before winning 13-5, then almost get no-hit by Randy Wolf. Huh? I guess we're in for a year of ups and downs in Denver. 

27. Houston Astros: Another week goes by in Houston and I still don't care about the Astros.

28. San Francisco Giants: After I ranked them last, last week, the Giants went out to prove me wrong. Way to go guys! 28th this week! Somebody named John Bowker has provided a spark, and Lincecum and Cain are awesome. There's a small glimmer of hope in the mine shaft of the Giants organization.

29. Texas Rangers: They've lost 5 in a row. How long is Salty going to be in the minor leagues? They have some good young players, Ian Kinsler, Hank Blalock, Josh Hamilton, even David Murphy has some potential. Why not let Salty develop with them? Help is on the way though, with a stacked farm system. 

30. Washington Nationals: After winning 3 straight to open the year, they lost 9 in a row to start 4-10. The rotation is awful, but at least Christian Guzman and Lastings Milledge are playing well. 

Well that does it for Week 3's power rankings. Thanks for reading. Also, in sports related movie news, check out "Leatherheads" starring George Clooney and John Krasinski, very good overall movie, and definitely a fun football flick as well. 

The Padres' Bullpen

Last night against the Giants the Padres' bullpen again allowed the opposition to score the winning runs. Ok, so that was after holding them scoreless for the previous four innings, so last night's game is probably the wrong one to use to demonstrate the pen's struggles. Still, the Padre relievers as a group have the second worst ERA in baseball this season. What does this tell us about the Padres' pen and their prospects for the rest of the season? Should they be seeking reinforcements, and should we be re-evaluating the team's true strengths?

In a word, no. In three words, small sample size. In many more words that reiterate those four words, the combined twenty innings the relievers have thrown adds almost no information for us about their individual abilities. Cla Meredith is still a great groundball pitcher with excellent control who dominates righties. Joe Thatcher is still a groundballing sidearmer better against lefties but who can get righties out. Heath Bell is still overall awesome. Trevor Hoffman still has a great changeup and the same stuff he's used to get by with a sub 3 ERA for six years in a row. Enrique Gonzalez, Glendon Rusch, and Wil Ledezma probably aren't going to be very good, but Kevin Cameron and Carlos "Che" Guevara both look solid and available to be called up/activated from the DL.

More on Trevor Hoffman: according to Gameday, Hoffman's velocity is right where it was last year, his changeup still looks as nasty as ever, and he's used his slider effectively at times (he struck out Matt Kemp on three straight sliders). He had a terrible outing against Houston where he struggled with his control, but still almost escaped without allowing a run. Against the Dodgers, he gave up one run on a walk and a single. It's been four innings, two of them excellent. He's given up one extra base hit, so it's not like every ball put in play has been a rocket. It is extremely premature to conclude he's done.

Power Rankings

The extended first week of the Major League Baseball season is now over, and we've already had some surprises. Nate McLouth of the Pirates turning into Babe Ruth Jr., the Baltimore Orioles defying the experts (myself included) by starting in first place with a 5-1 record, and the Detroit Tigers are winless in their first six games. So while I would like to make these power rankings reflective of how I think things will actually turn out, at this point I will temper my expectations in deference as to how the season is currently playing out. A word of caution however, as is often said this is a marathon, not a trip to the kitchen for some midnight snacks. Ok that's not exactly the saying, but you get the idea. 

So here are my power rankings for Week 2...

1. Toronto Blue Jays: I know what you're thinking. The Toronto Blue Jays? But, I say to you, do not judge lest ye be judged. The Blue Jays just swept the Red Sox, granted at home, but that's still impressive. Their rotation has four very, very good pitchers in Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, and Marcum, and Jesse Litsch also has some potential. While the Red Sox saw Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz struggle, Marcum and McGowan looked dominant. With a Vernon Wells return to form, the Blue Jays very well could contend in the Al East. 

2. Anaheim Angels: Even without Lackey and Escobar, their pitching seems to be ok. So with them, they should be even better. 

3. New York Yankees: How long can they keep Joba Chamberlain out of the rotation? Relatedly, how long can Mike Mussina stay in the rotation? 

4. Milwaukee Brewers: They started hot last year too, but as it is always is, with a healthy Ben Sheets they should be good. Now they also need a healthy Gallardo as well.

5. Baltimore Orioles: Well. They swept the Mariners. That's a good sign. They're also still the Baltimore Orioles. That's a bad sign.

6. Chicago White Sox: They've won five in a row, including a sweep of Detroit. Still don't see them winning this year.

7. Arizona Diamondbacks: If Justin Upton continues to hit this well, they will be very dangerous. Mark Reynolds, Upton, and Chris Young are all at the top of the HR leaderboard.

8. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers were 3-6 against the Pads in Petco last year, so taking 2 of 3 is a step forward. They're battling through facing Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Jake Peavy, Chris Young, and Dan Haren, they're 2-2 so far. 

9. San Diego Padres: The starting rotation has been excellent, but the bullpen has really struggled, Hoffman has not looked good so far this year. The hitting has also been solid so far.

10. St. Louis Cardinals: Pujols still hasn't hit a homer, and yet the team is 5-2. We'll see how long that lasts, though. 

11. Kansas City Royals: The Royals certainly have some talent, so with some lucky breaks they could stay up towards the top of the Central for a few more weeks probably. 

12. Atlanta Braves: They won the two games they played against the Mets, but they lost Mike Hampton again. Did they really expect to have him around?

13. Cleveland Indians: C.C. Sabathia was rocked at Oakland, but Cliff Lee pitched well. Go figure. 

14. Boston Red Sox: They were 3-1 until they ran into a buzzsaw in Toronto, but Beckett and Buchholz struggling is worrisome. 

15. Chicago Cubs: Perhaps a little low, but I am unexcited by their rotation at this point. Fukudome has been great so far. 

16. Tampa Bay Rays: When David Price, Reid Brignac, Wade Davis, and Jake McGee are ready, this team will be dangerous. 

17. Cincinnati Reds: Johnny Cueto's debut was dazzling, and so was Edison Volquez. 

18. Florida Marlins: Would you trade the entire team for A-Rod and $7 million? These are the tough questions.

19. Texas Rangers: Josh Hamilton has started well, but Volquez was excellent. Only time will tell on that one. 

20. Philadelphia Phillies: The bats were silenced by Tim Redding, but I don't see that being a long term problem here. 

21. Oakland Athletics: I actually don't know that they will be as bad as I previously thought. Assuming of course the obvious, Rich Harden's arm bones not exploding into shards of shattered hopes. 

22. Pittsburgh Pirates: Nate McLouth and Xavier Nady are the best players in baseball. Let's just get it out now. You heard it here first. 

23. Minnesota Twins: Really not much going on here until Francisco Liriano comes back. Can't wait for that.

24. New York Mets: I really don't like Oliver Perez, and Pedro's already hurt, so we'll have to see if Santana and John Maine are enough to get by. 

25. Houston Astros: It's hard to care less about a team than I do about the Astros.

26. Colorado Rockies: They certainly are struggling. But they're not THIS bad. 

27. Seattle Mariners: With Putz out, we'll see how the bullpen fares. They already blew one win for Felix Hernandez. 

28. Washington Nationals: I'm not sure which is their number one starter, Odalis Perez or Matt Chico. 

29. Detroit Tigers: My preseason pick to win the World Series, the Tigers have really not done anything well so far. Obviously not time to panic, but definitely puzzling. 

30. San Francisco Giants: Possibly the worst lineup in baseball history. This team is Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum and a black hole. 

Well there ya have it. Stay tuned to baseball, and if I'm not too lazy, I'll do this again for Week 3.  

2008 Season Preview and Predictions

This is two baseball fans' take on the start of the season. Keep in mind Filliam is a Dodgers fan, Carl is a Padres fan, and, all things being equal, we root for the NL over the AL. Unlike other predictions, you can rest assured these will be dragged out and reviewed after the season, if only so the better predictor can celebrate his victory. With that in mind, on to the preview:

NL West

Filliam: As a Dodgers fan I would be remiss if I didn't pick the boys in blue to return to the top of the division. I like their lineup top to bottom, and a healthy Schmidt would give them a very solid 1-5 to go with a solid bullpen.

Carl: Shockingly enough, I like the Padres. I see a team that had a very good season last year (89 wins) and did enough in the offseason to maintain that level of performance. Much as it pains to admit me, the Dodgers do look very good, especially now that it looks like they're going to pick Ethier to start in left over Pierre.

Filliam: For the same reason my esteemed colleague Carl likes the Padres to win the division, I like the D-backs to finish in second. They won 90 games last year, and while they were outscored, I believe their hitters will progress enough and the rotation will benefit from the addition of Dan Haren. The Padres as I've said previously, are too reliant on one-year players, injury risks, and are starting Scott Hairston and Jody Gerut in the outfield to open the year. But, the rotation should be good, the bullpen always is, which is why I still think they'll finish over .500.

Carl: Ah, see people rag on the Padres for starting Hairston in center and McAnulty/Gerut in left, but the Dodgers are throwing out Blake DeWitt at third. I think people are overestimating how much Arizona's young players are going to improve. A modest improvement for a lot of those guys still makes their lineup below average. And their bullpen pitched way, way over its head last year, both in terms of season versus career performance and relative to their peripherals. For some reason, the Rockies just don't do it for me, probably because it's hard for me to get a handle on the magnitude of their park effects. They have 5 really good hitters in their lineup and three really bad ones, and their lineup isn't as great as it's cracked up to be. Last year, it was a little above average, slightly better than the Padres'. As a side note, the Dodgers, D-backs, and Giants all had really terrible hitting teams last year. Getting back to this year, the Giants' lineup is going to be horrific. They had a 89 OPS+ last year and subtracted the 170 OPS+ from left. Brian Bocock, who put up a .656 OPS in A-ball last year, starts the year at short for them.

Filliam: The Rockies to me were good, but fluky last year, and I think they'll be closer to 80 wins than 90. The Giants have promising young pitching but disastrously awful hitting and are clearly the bottom feeder in the division.

Filliam's Prediction:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers 88-74
2. Arizona Diamondbacks 86-76
3. San Diego Padres 83-79
4. Colorado Rockies 82-80
5. San Francisco Giants 67-95

Carl's Prediction:
1. San Diego Padres 91-71
2. Los Angeles Dodgers 89-73 *wild card
3. Arizona Diamondbacks 84-78
4. Colorado Rockies 83-81
5. San Fransisco Giants 65-97

NL Central

Carl: Looks like a two team race between the Cubs and Brewers. The Brewers hugely improved their defense by signing Cameron, moving Hall to third, and moving Braun to left. That change alone could give them 3 wins over last year. The Cubs look like a very solid team top to bottom, and I think they'll edge out the Brewers at the end of the season.

Filliam: I had the Cubs winning the division before I remembered Lou Pinella is their manager. He's terrible. If Gallardo and Sheets return healthy the Brewers will definitely challenge for the division. The Reds have some exciting young players, but in general the rest of the division is pretty weak and unexciting.

Carl: Agree with you there. If everything breaks the Reds way, they could contend, but they're probably too focused more on the future to take some risks trying to win now. Man how the Astros and the Cardinals have fallen. As for the Pirates, well, at least they probably won't use their top draft pick on a reliever this year.

Filliam's Prediction:

1. Milwaukee Brewers 86-76
2. Chicago Cubs 85-77
3. Cincinnati Reds 80-82
4. Houston Astros 76-86
5. St. Louis Cardinals 74-88
6. Pittsburgh Pirates 71-91

Carl's Prediction:
1. Cubs
2. Brewers
------.500----
3. Reds
4. Cardinals
5. Astros
6. Pirates
(Note: I'm not predicting records anymore because that's a ridiculous implication of precision that I don't want to make. Ok, no, mainly I just don't want to tally up all the wins and losses to make sure the league as a whole isn't winning more games than it's losing. I'll draw in a .500 line in the standings; that's about as precise as I can predict.)

NL East

Filliam: The Mets are the best team in the National League this year, mainly due to Johan Santana. The Mets have always had pitching problems, and although Santana won't completely solve all of their issues, he'll certainly help. The Braves should have a great offense, and Hudson, Smoltz, and Glavine in the rotation, which will be enough to compete. The Phillies have pitching issues, the Nats have well, issues, and the Marlins are rebuilding.

Carl: Yes, the Mets are good. Very shallow, but good. I think they'll avoid enough injuries to be the best team in the NL. I agree with your other assessments, and would like to throw in a compliment of Jim Bowden, who has made some solid high upside acquisitions in his quest to rebuild the Nationals.

Filliam's Predictions:

1. New York Mets 91-71
2. Atlanta Braves 87-75
3. Philadelphia Phillies 84-78
4. Washington Nationals 75-87
5. Florida Marlins 68-94

Carl's Predictions:
1. Mets
2. Braves
3. Phillies
------.500-------
4. Nats
5. Marlins

AL West

Carl: I'm really down on this division in general now that Escobar is out for the year and Lackey is missing a month. The Angels should still have enough to win the division, but they're not a particularly strong team anymore.

Filliam: I liked the Angels to win more games until the severity of Kelvim Escobar's injury was revealed, and before John Lackey got hurt. The Mariners will challenge them with Bedard and King Felix, but the Angels offense should be enough to get them through.

Carl: I'm not very impressed with the Mariners, who outperformed their runs scored/runs allowed last year, but they could have enough to push the weakened Angels. I was surprised to see they had a 104 OPS+ last year, so they found some offense from somewhere. Oakland could regret punting on this year if Rich Harden and Bobby Crosby somehow avoid injury. Ok, so that's not going to happen. Oh well. Good job by Beane acknowledging the improbability of everyone in the division suffering massive injuries while Harden and Crosby avoid them.

Filliam: Yeah, the Rangers and A's have a lot of prospects but neither should be contenders this year.

Filliam's Predictions:

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of Los Angeles no wait, Orange County 89-73
2. Seattle Mariners 86-76
3. Texas Rangers 75-87
4. Oakland A's 71-91

Carl's Predictions:
1. The Angels Angels of Anaheim
2. Mariners
------.500--------
3. A's
4. Rangers

AL Central

Filliam: The Tigers made one of the biggest acquisitions of the offseason by getting Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Add those two to an already very good team, and you have a great team. The Indians too have a playoff caliber team, and a return to form by Cliff Lee would go a long way in helping them return. If the Tigers get Joel Zumaya and Francisco Rodney back healthy they should have a good enough bullpen to get by the Indians.

Carl: My bold prediction for this year: the Tigers are not going to score 1000 runs. Cabrera and Renteria are great upgrades, but the Tigers are going to see a lot of regression from Polanco, Granderson, and Ordonez. I like the Indians to sneak by the Tigers mainly due to better pitching and pitching depth. As for the rest of the division, got anything relevant or interesting to say about them, because I certainly don't.

Filliam: The Royals are up and coming, the White Sox are, uh, a baseball team, and the Twins are rebuilding.

Carl: Nicely done.

Filliam's Predictions:

1. Detroit Tigers 96-66
2. Cleveland Indians 92-70
3. Kansas City Royals 77-85
4. Chicago White Sox 74-88
5. Minnesota Twins 68-94

Carl's Predictions:
1. Indians
2. Tigers
-------.500------
3. White Sox
4. Royals
5. Twins

AL East

Carl: Ooh, finally time for the only division that matters. That's right, it's the home of the storied Jays-Rays rambunctious rhyming rivalry. The Rays have taken it on the chin from their northern rivals, but they've done an excellent job building up their team from within. Picking first every year certainly helps with that. I don't think this is the year they pass the Jays though. My favorite part about the Blue Jays is their awesome, awesome defense. Until they cut Reed Johnson, they had a legitimate gold glove caliber defender at every position except catcher. It looks like the Rays actually adopted some of the Jays' defensive emphasis this year, adding Bartlett at short and keeping Upton in center for good. That, the addition of Matt Garza, and the continued development of their top minor league arms should greatly decrease their RA this year. I think both teams will be right around .500, with the Blue Jays a couple games up on their Floridian nemesis. Can you think of any other interesting teams that call this division home? I guess we could theoretically talk about the two best teams in baseball.

Filliam: The Red Sox have some interesting questions right now, namely can Jon Lester become a top flight starter, is Josh Beckett healthy, and can Clay Buchholz and/or Bartolo Colon be good enough to get them the division? That's more questions than you'd like from a defending world champion, but if they get satisfactory answers they will probably win the division. The Yankees are for the first time that I can remember, relying on young players on the starting staff, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy will all be a major part of the team. While this is a good thing for the future, I'm not entirely sure how their rotation will look this year. Mike Mussina was awful last year, Pettitte was good last year, but has injury issues, and has steroids drama to deal with now. So again, questions for a contending team.

Carl: I actually think the Yankees will take the division and the Red Sox the wildcard. Better offense, just enough pitching. Thoughts on the rest of the division?

Filliam: The Blue Jays have some good young players, and continue to get better, but I don't think they have enough to get over the hump. If they bring up Adam Lind and he fulfills his considerable potential, they'll have a good offense to go along with what appears to be a good rotation. The Devil...err, Rays have a ton of young talent, a ton of prospects, some more ready to contribute than others, and with some luck, will be contenders within a few years. But losing Rocco Baldelli hurts, and Scott Kazmir needs to get healthy as well. The Orioles are a solid 5 years away from being a decent team.

Carl: Oh yes, the Orioles, now more than ever complete afterthoughts. At least they're going in the right direction in rebuilding now, though.

Filliam's Predictions:

1. Boston Red Sox 95-67
2. New York Yankees 91-71
3. Toronto Blue Jays 86-76
4. Tampa Bay Rays 82-80
5. Baltimore Orioles 65-97

Carl's Predictions:
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox *wild card
3. Blue Jays
4. Rays
----.500-----
5. Orioles

Postseason

Filliam's Predictions:

AL-Detroit over Anaheim, Boston over Cleveland; Detroit over Boston

NL-New York over Milwaukee, Los Angeles over Atlanta; Los Angeles over New York

World Series-Detroit over Los Angeles

Carl's Predictions:
NL - Dodgers over Mets, Padres over Cubs, Padres over Dodgers
AL - Indians over Red Sox, Yankees over Angels, Indians over Yankees

World Series - Padres over Indians
(I'm being a homer in picking the Padres to win their division, I'm not going to just stop there and pick someone else to win the World Series.)

Awards

AL Cy Young: Erik Bedard, Seattle Mariners

NL Cy Young: Johan Santana, New York Mets

AL MVP: Grady Sizemore, CF, Cleveland Indians

NL MVP: David Wright, 3B, New York Mets

AL ROY: Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays

NL ROY: Kosuke Fukodome, CF, Chicago Cubs

Random other predictions:

Filliam: It seems to me that there are a few really good teams, a few really bad teams, and a lot in the middle. Should make for quite an interesting season. Players I tossed out for consideration in the awards categories: Prince Fielder for NL MVP, and Miguel Cabrera for AL MVP. I like our selections, but both of those guys could be close.

Carl: Randy Wolf has a huge year for the Padres. Brad Penny has a terrible year for the Dodgers. Matt Kemp takes a step back, Andruw Jones has a very good bounceback year. Pedro Martinez throws 50 innings this year and signs with the Padres next offseason. C.C. Sabathia signs an extension with Cleveland in the middle of the season. Justin Verlander disappoints. Jose Guillen disappoints, Zach Greinke has a huge year. Cole Hamels throws a no-hitter, the Mariners and A's get into a brawl, and Shane Victorino hits for the cycle.

Ouch

While perusing Oliver Perez's PECOTA card at Baseball Prospectus, I found this comment on him from the 2003 annual:

"I had seen notes that showed Perez’s fastball at 90 mph, but it sure looked better than that to me. He supports it with a tremendous changeup and tight curveball, giving him three quality pitches to work with. Perez is mature beyond his years in terms of working hitters with speed changes; somewhere, his changeup against Reggie Sanders just hit the glove. San Diego might be the only club with better and younger front-line starting pitching than Oakland. These guys are that good."

Ouch. At least Peavy's good...

Some of these young arms that were better and younger than Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, Aaron Harang, and Rich Harden:

Jake Peavy - Hey, a success. Let's just stop here.
Oliver Perez
Brian Lawrence
Dennis Tankersley
Adam Eaton
Mark Phillips
Ben Howard
Eric Cyr
Mike Bynum

Glance at this article and think about what might have been.

So what does this tell us? Never count your minor league pitching prospects until they are hatched as fully formed big league starters. Actually, if you think about this list, Peavy is one of the best pitchers in baseball, Perez was traded for a great player (coming of a 177 OPS+ year), and Eaton was used to acquire Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez. I guess that's about as good as you can hope for when dealing with minor league arms and potential. I think I would have preferred a rotation of Hudson, Zito, Mulder, Harden, Harang in their primes, though.

Padres Opening Day Roster Analysis

The Padres came into spring training with a number of questions to resolve about the roster. The left field starter and fifth rotation member were TBD, three of the five bench spots were up in the air, and the last three bullpen slots remained unclaimed. With five days to the opener, these questions have been answered and the Opening Day roster seems to be set, barring further injury or a change of heart. Here's a look through how those questions were answered and if they came up with the correct answer, in my (obviously infallible) opinion.

Disclaimer: I was really cheesed off when the Padres released Russell Branyan, so I tend to overreact to small roster moves that make no sense to my way of thinking about the team. Most of the bench and back of the bullpen spots are all about small sample size theater, so the true impact of the back of the roster construction is very small. We're not choosing between Juan Pierre and Matt Kemp for 700 PA here. Still, in the NL West, every game counts.

5th Starter's Spot: Justin Germano has been declared the victor in this battle after everything worked out in the Padres' interests nicely in spring training. Germano had a very good camp; the second best option, Glendon Rusch, had a very good camp and is ready to help if Germano falters or Wolf is injured; the inexplicable front runner entering camp, Shawn Estes, who is an inferior pitcher to Germano and Rusch, had a terrible camp and will start with Portland to work on stuff. Germano is the fifth starter until/unless Prior returns. Rusch can step in if Germano falters or Wolf goes down and hopefully not embarrass himself (PECOTA has him at an above replacement level 4.95 ERA, and presumably he could be better if he's healthier, which the Padres seem to think he is). Ideally LeBlanc will be ready to help in the second half if anyone goes down beyond that; he held his own in major league camp this spring.

Left Field Starter: Deciding to delay Headley's service clock to control him for another year and the injury to Edmonds left Gerut and McAnulty the left fielders by default. The addition of Huber should create a passable left field platoon. I'm not particularly excited about any of these guys, but maybe one of them will catch fire and keep Headley down for a while. When Edmonds comes back, Hairston moves back to left and probably platoons with the hotter of Gerut or McAnulty.

Bullpen spots: Hoffman, Bell, Thatcher, and Meredith were guaranteed spots. Hampson and Guevara (who I really like and hope is on the team when he's healthy) start the year on the DL, and Ledezma, Rusch, and Gonzalez get the last three spots. Rusch is the necessary long man, but I don't get the inclusion of Ledezma and Gonzalez. Ledezma has good stuff but needs to refine his control. He had a superficially good spring ERA-wise, but in 13 IP he's had 8 BBs and 6 K's. Gonzalez also has a mediocre track record and wasn't impressive this spring. Oh well. Neither of them is going to pitch in many high leverage situations, and if they aren't very good they'll get booted in favor of Cameron, Hampson, and Guevara quickly enough.

Bench Spots: I think the club did an solid job picking their bench players. Crabbe is the obligatory light hitting fast scrappy guy, who will mainly be used as a middle infielder and center fielder. Clark and Gerut provide good lefty bats off the bench, and the trade for Huber fills the need for a righty pinch hitter. Barrett is the backup catcher, and with a 12 man pitching staff that's all you get on the bench. It looks like they picked the best hitters that have the necessary versatility.

In summary, a solid job filling out the team. I think when Headley gets called back up he'll be mostly the starter in left, with Hairston spelling Giles and Edmonds regularly. I'd also expect Hampson, Guevara, and Cameron to cycle into the back three spots in the bullpen as Ledezma and Gonzalez struggle or other guys get hurt.

The best news of all about the roster this year: Geoff Blum is not the first right handed pinch hitter off of the bench.

March Madness

March is a time for madness. This much we know. Madness as in, 48 college basketball games in four days. Madness as in playing two regular season baseball games in Japan at 3am Pacific time, then having both teams return to playing exhibition games for a few days, then back to regular season games. With all of that over, however, I'm going to be your guide to the upcoming madness the last few remaining days of March will provide. So, pack your bags and come with me on a journey. 

With the NCAA Men's Division 1 Basketball Championship breaking records for longest name and attendance, the tournament will move into regional action. The most interesting matchups include Washington State-North Carolina, Louisville-Tennessee, Stanford-Texas, and Wisconsin-Davidson. That last game features probably the best story of the tournament so far, embodied by Stephen Curry of Davidson. Curry is averaging 35 points through his first two games, and there's no reason to expect he won't be around that total again on Friday. In addition to the rather interesting pronunciation of his first name, Curry also could be the first one man team to advance to the Elite 8. If you saw his performances against Gonzaga and Georgetown, you'd have noticed that his teammates valuable services exist mainly to support his heroic efforts. As an "underdog" fan, I'll be pulling hard for Davidson to continue its run, in the fleeting hope that they knock off North Carolina in the Final Four. 

Baseball is back! And by back, I mean the Red Sox and A's are back and the rest of the teams are still basing their decisions on statistics racked up against pitchers like Byung-Hyun Kim. 

In any case, while the return of America's pastime to the forefront of television consciousness is most welcome, I can't help but feel that some teams still think they're in spring training. For your consideration, I submit the Florida Marlins. While teams not expected to compete such as the A's, Giants, and Pirates are at least throwing out promising starters such as Joe Blanton, Barry Zito and Ian Snell for opening day duty, the Marlins are starting...Mark Hendrickson. The same Mark Hendrickson that last season was beat out for starts by Brett Tomko. With Miami-Dade County committed to building a new stadium, the team rewards this development by starting Mark Hendrickson. Good luck creating excitement for baseball in South Florida. 

All that being said, we're hurtling towards exciting finishes in both college basketball and professional basketball, with classic matchups possible in both championships. North Carolina and UCLA are both favored to return to the championship game, and while not necessarily rivals, they are two of the most storied programs in college basketball history. Meanwhile in the NBA, the Celtics and Lakers are at the top of their respective conferences. Even though the Eastern Conference looks more and more like North Dakota High School Basketball each day. Both of these matchups have as much intrigue and excitement as the "Lost"-"CSI" battle on Thursday nights. 

So as you navigate through the raging waters of March sports, look for Stephen Curry, Mark Hendrickson, and the entire Western Conference to add more madness to an already crazy month. In closing, I'll give you my Fantasy Baseball tip of the week, pick up Willy Aybar, the starting third baseman for the Tampa Bay Rays. I feel like he'll be entrenched in that spot for a long, long time.