Catcher: Russell Martin last year proved that his rookie season was no fluke, going .293/.374/.469 with 19 HR's, 87 RBI's, 87 Runs, and 21 SB's. There's no reason to expect a downturn from those numbers, and in fact with some more rest, he might be able to improve on some, as he did falter somewhat down the stretch as the workload caught up with him. Martin should have a lock on the catcher position for the Dodgers for the next 5-8 years.
First Base: What started out as position of weakness for the Dodgers eventually became a position of strength with the advent of James Loney as the full time starter. In 344 at bats Loney went .331/.381/.538 with an OPS+ of 131. Now obviously that's not a full season, but in his major league career he has 446 at bats and has gone .321/.372/.543 with a career OPS+ of 130. Combine that with 19 career home runs and 85 RBI's and again it looks like the Dodgers have the position locked up for the next 5-8 years as well.
Second Base: Jeff Kent currently holds down the spot, and while he is clearly on the decline, his numbers last year give hope for another relatively productive season, most likely his last with the Dodgers. In 494 at bats last year he went .302/.375/.500 for an OPS+ of 121, above average production in those categories to go along with 20 home runs and 79 rbi's. While his defense is very shaky to say the least, his offensive production is such that he continues to be valuable to the team. The Dodgers seem to believe Tony Abreu is the mid-term solution to 2B after Kent is finished, although he seems like a lower-echelon prospect as his career minor league OPS is .781, despite a .916 audition in triple-A last season. Seems to me the best long term solution is to go after a second baseman in free agency, or pursue one in the draft.
Third Base: Third base is somewhat of a question mark for the Dodgers, though mainly through their own stupidity. We'll see what Joe Torre has in store for the hot corner, but if he was as smart as say, a 20 year old blogger from Carlsbad, he'd start Andy LaRoche over Nomar Garciaparra, and give the Dodgers another high upside, high OPS player in the lineup. LaRoche in '05 went a combined .305/.374/.553 for a .927 OPS with 30 HRs and 94 RBIs. In '06 he went .315/.410/.514 for a .924 OPS and in '07 in only 265 at bats in triple-A he went .309/.399/.589 for a .988 OPS and 18 HR's and 48 RBIs. In 265 at bats! Clearly he has infinitely more upside than the oft-injured Garciaparra. As a Dodgers fan, I can only hope they realize this and make LaRoche the full time starter, give him a chance, and see if he becomes the next Miguel Cabrera.
Shortstop: Rafael Furcal had a down year last year as he was bothered by injuries for a significant portion of the season. As he'll play the entire season at 30, there's no reason to expect a complete deterioration, however, I would not expect him to return to 15 HR's and 37 steals. Something in between last season and 2006 seems most likely, with 10-12 HR's and 25-30 steals, adequate production for a player in the last year of his contract. The Dodgers have Chin-Lung Hu, who after being a below average hitter and above average defender added some power to his statistics, hitting 14 hr's and having a .507 slugging percentage in the minor leagues, which gives hope for a chance at being a productive major leaguer. If Furcal again succumbs to injuries, Hu would seem to be the replacement, as of now there is no young up and coming shortstop on the free agent market for 2009, which leads me to believe the Dodgers will either re-sign Furcal or give Hu a chance. Of course, this all depends on what happens next year, and there is always the possibility of trades.
Left Field: Last year, Left Field was patrolled mainly by Luis Gonzalez, who has since moved on to warmer pastures in Florida. With the signing of Andruw Jones, this would conceivably push Juan Pierre into the position, however rumor has it he is not assured of the starting job, and will have to compete mainly with Andre Ethier. Pierre is always a defensive liability, and makes a tremendous amount of outs at the plate. Ethier does not seem to have 30 HR power which will make him a decent starter, his career OPS+ is 108, and he plays pretty good defense as well. Starting Pierre is clearly not the right move, as his only real value is in stealing bases, which could make him more suited to come off the bench in the late innings than to eat up at bats.
Center Field: The Dodgers signed Andruw Jones in the offseason to provide some much needed power in the middle of the lineup and to bring his best in class defense to Chavez Ravine. While the signing has been greeted with mixed reviews, I am generally in favor of the deal as it's only a two year commitment, and Jones is a massive upgrade over Pierre. However, he will need to get his batting average up towards .260-.270 and keep his homers to 35+ to really be a force for the Dodgers.
Right Field: It appears Matt Kemp is going to be the full-time starter in right field for the Dodgers, and he showed flashes of brilliance last year which leads many Dodgers fans to believe he could be a great outfielder in the years to come. While his .342 average last year was definitely inflated, it's not out of the realm of reason to expect him to hit between .285-.300 with 20-25 home runs and 10-15 steals. Obviously, the team would love for him to exceed those expectations seeing as he was perceived to be a component in the Dodgers offers for the big name available players during the offseason; none of which the Dodgers actually pulled the trigger on.
Starting Pitching: After being forced to start Mark Hendrickson and Brett Tomko for extended periods of time last year, the Dodgers decided to bring more depth to the rotation, and they added Hiroki Kuroda and Estaban Loiaza to the mix for this season. The rotation will likely pan out to be Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, and Jason Schmidt. If Schmidt does make a healthy return from his lost season last year, the rotation could be relatively formidable, as Penny was very good last year, and Billingsley showed he has fantastic potential, with 141 K's in 147 innings, and a 138 ERA+. At the very least, it appears the Dodgers prospectively have a very solid 1-5 rotation, with more help on the way soon in the form of James McDonald, he of the 168 K's in 134 innings, with a 3.07 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Not to be forgotten is former top prospect Scott Elbert, and phenom Clayton Kershaw. Those three, along with Billingsley will hopefully form the rotation for years to come, with Chris Withrow much farther away but with seemingly high potential.
Relief Pitching: The Dodgers return Everyday Scott Proctor, Rudy Seanez, Jonathon Broxton, Takashi Saito, Joe Beimel, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Yhency Brazoban, which would give them a solid bullpen, not mind-boggling, but definitely solid enough to compete. Jonathon Meloan, another top prospect could beat out someone for a spot, and hopefully prove to be a great young commodity.
In summary, the Dodgers lineup will *hopefully* stack up like this:
- Rafael Furcal SS
- Russell Martin C
- Andruw Jones CF
- Jeff Kent 2B
- James Loney 1B
- Matt Kemp RF
- Andre Ethier LF
- Andy LaRoche 3B
Joe Torre was brought in to be the manager, and he certainly can't be worse than Grady Little, which gives me more hope for the upcoming season. I see the Dodgers winning between 85-91 games this year, which would appear to put them squarely in contention for the NL West, and a date with the winner of the NL Central.
Ian Miller is an aspiring Journalist, frequent contributor to Hot Ham Water, and generally enjoys long walks on the beach and drinking hot chocolate.
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