A Case for the Padres

Baseball creeps nearer. Pitchers and catchers report in less than a week. We are inundated by stories of ballplayers in the best shape of their lives, who have magically dropped twenty pounds, and who are working on a new pitch. (Thanks to Roto Authority for tracking these important spring training cliches.)

The NL West looks to this unbiased observer to be home to the best division race in baseball next year. Sure, the top two teams in the AL Central are better, but now that the Twins have finished their Santana action, and despite the White Sox's best delusions of contention, that is a two team race. The AL East features the always intriguing and never stale Yankees-Red Sox titanic, monumental, historic, epic, intense, and fierce rivalry that everyone in the countries loves to follow 24/7 (see, ESPN, I can totally do this, hire me). The NL East is full of offensive firepower and possibly the greatest troika of shortstops ever assembled in one division (not to mention a probable 7 first round fantasy draft picks), and the injection of Johan Santana into it certainly made it more compelling. (increased the compellingness? Hmm, I don't think that's a word.) But the NL East also has a clear cut favorite now (the Mets) and contains two really bad teams. The NL West is wide open, with four teams with a legitimate shot at a division title and four teams with a legitimate shot at finishing fourth. Sure, the Giants are terrible, but even they have the incredible 1-2 punch of Cain and Lincecum to fear when facing them.

But wait, you say, the Padres are a terrible franchise with the worst fans in all of pro sports that rely on fluke performances from AAAA players every year. This is the year their luck finally runs out, and there's no possible way they could finish ahead of the much higher salaried Dodgers for the fourth straight year. Well, this post is designed to allay your fears and present the compelling case that the Padres have this chance to win the division. The Padres can win the division, and in fact have a solid shot at it. Here's why/how:

1. Starting from a high base: Last season the Padres won 89 games against 74 losses. Based on their runs scored/runs allowed, their expected record was ... 89-74. So unlike a certain major rival, they were not extremely lucky to have the record they had at the end of the season. The Diamondbacks were outscored on the season and expected to have a 79-83 record. The Dodgers finished at 82-80, right in line with their expected win-loss record. The Padres, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks all return most of their rosters from last year, so the advantage there is to the Padres. Sure, the Diamondbacks and Dodgers made a couple of upgrades, but they needed the upgrade to reach the level of the Padres.

2. The outfield is not as bad as is commonly perceived: Brian Giles continues to be phenomenally underrated in his decline phase. He posted a 109 OPS+ weighted toward OBP (more valuable than weighted toward slugging) despite playing on a bum knee for most of the final months of the season. A healthier year from him will improve his stats further. Right field is not a problem. Center field is manned by the injury prone Jim Edmonds. Edmonds likely is not washed up with the bat. Two years ago, he posted a 110 OPS+ despite battling injuries. Last year he fell to an 88 OPS+, but now he claims to be healthier than he has been since his 137 OPS+ year in 2005 and seems like a good bet for a bounceback. He's still only going to play 130 games in a best case scenario, but if he plays those and hits enough for a 110 OPS+, he probably approximately replicates Mike Cameron's value from last year. Scott Hairston and Jeff DaVanon are actually solid fallback options, as both seem to have the defensive skill to play a slightly below average center and hit at the positional average. Callix Crabbe has the speed and OBP chops to be a solid offensive and defensive fill in as well. Left field is a bit of a mystery, but keep in mind Jose Cruz and Termel Sledge were the left fielders for the first half of the year last year. It's a low target to exceed. One of Hairston or Headley seems like a good bet for solid production; ZIPS likes Chase Headley, PECOTA likes Scott Hairston. Either way works for me.

Conclusion: the Padres outfield is not a blackhole and should probably match or exceed the production from last year.

3. All the key players from last year are young: The Padres's best players last year were Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez, Khalil Greene, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Josh Bard, Milton Bradley, and Heath Bell. All of them except Bradley return this year, in the prime of their careers, all solid best to improve on or match last year's output. Kouzmanoff in particular could greatly exceed his production from last year if his line from May 1 onward (after his adjustment to the majors) of .303/.355/.504 is carried over to this year.

Based on this, I think the Padres have a solid chance at winning the division this year. I have no idea who will take it. It should be another close, exciting race between the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Padres, and Rockies. Pecota's simulation of the season from its projections has the D-Backs and Dodgers tied at the top with 86 wins, with the Padres at 83 and the Rockies at 82. This is with Pecota being pessimistic on Greg Maddux (130 IP forecast), Chris Young (150 IP with a 3.73 ERA compared to 173 IP, 3.12 ERA this year), Jim Edmonds, Randy Wolf, and Mark Prior (very limited playing time/production due to injuries). If the Padres get a couple of breaks with those players staying healthy and productive, they'll have a very good chance to win the division. It should be a great race.